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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   30625 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of August 14, 2023

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blue requires 50% cooperation for the optimal outcome.

And the way the question is posed, there is no opportunity for coordination, and everyone only has information about their own choice, and that everyone else is making the same choice.

And if the cooperation fails you and all others who picked blue die.

You can literally ONLY get the worst outcome (49.99999% death rate) if people start choosing blue.

Here's a slight adjustment to the Hypo:

What if everyone discusses the matter beforehand and everyone agrees to select red. Now, there is no way to know that people will pick red, but is there any possible reason to pick blue once that agreement has been reached?

You can literally ONLY get the worst outcome (49.99999% death rate) if people start choosing blue.

Yeah? And you can literally only get the worst outcome if people start choosing red too, framed differently.

What if everyone discusses the matter beforehand and everyone agrees to select red. Now, there is no way to know that people will pick red, but is there any possible reason to pick blue once that agreement has been reached?

Nah, there's no way blue is happening at that point. I can see people doing it anyway, to not feel guilty about the deaths of those who will misclick, but it's not rational.

Yeah? And you can literally only get the worst outcome if people start choosing red too, framed differently.

Yep.

But red doesn't introduce any additional risk. Deaths occur IF AND ONLY IF blue is picked by someone(s). Blue is a necessary AND sufficient condition for deaths. Red is neither necessary nor sufficient, under the currently stated hypo.

The first person to pick blue is the one who makes it possible for death to occur at all.

So if I push this to it's logical extreme, I could probably argue that blue-pickers end up with blood (including their own) on their hands.

I don't argue that, because I don't even think I fully understand the blue's logic.

Me saying "I'm going to pick red, and you should too" is my warning as to what will happen if we play the game. I have zero possible benefit to lying.

Picking blue is choosing to accept risk of death where red does not imply such risk.

Deaths occur IF AND ONLY IF blue is picked by someone

This statement is false. The only if part is true but not the if part since its possible for blue to be picked and there to be no deaths.

Blue is a necessary AND sufficient condition for deaths

Again false. Blue is a necessary condition but not a sufficient condition for deaths as there are situations where blue is picked but there are no deaths

Red is neither necessary nor sufficient,

False one more time. Red is a necessary condition for deaths as if there are no reds there will be no deaths.

If you're going to use precise logical terminology in your post make sure to get it right otherwise you're just embarrassing yourself.

Red is a necessary condition for deaths as if there are no reds there will be no deaths.

Yeah, I should have specified that red is neither necessary nor sufficient to cause deaths conditional on there being no persons choosing blue.

Which is to say, the persons choosing blue are satisfying the condition which makes deaths a possibility.

Blue is a necessary condition but not a sufficient condition for deaths as there are situations where blue is picked but there are no deaths

Choosing blue is sufficient to cause deaths in every scenario in which they don't meet the threshold, if you think this makes the outcome different.

I'll point out that we're still left with the point that at least one person choosing blue is necessary to cause deaths. Prior to the decisions actually being made, I can state that picking red is not satisfying the conditions for death. It's not sufficient, and it's not necessary unless someone else is choosing blue.

Red is only necessary to cause deaths in those situations where that first person chooses blue.

To choose blue is to intentionally satisfy the precondition which makes deaths a possibility.

So someone choosing blue really has to justify why they're choosing to satisfy a condition which is allowing possible deaths.

I think there will always be people who choose blue for one reason or another, and I'd rather risk my life saving everyone than accept their deaths, provided I'm not just throwing away my life.

All this debate is definitely pushing me towards red though. Blue won in the original poll, but if outside of that corner of Twitter everyone picks red, red is obviously the better option.

think there will always be people who choose blue for one reason or another,

But this is an interesting thing to state, since people choosing blue presumably HAVE reasons for doing it. And those reasons might be salient as well.

For example, someone might pick blue because they WANT to die. Am I going to know that in advance? No. So I don't see why it should change my behavior.

"I want to save everyone" is comprehensible logic, but it requires us to believe there are people in need of saving.

Well here are a few possibilities:

  1. Someone doesn't get the memo that everyone is choosing red

  2. Someone is just stupid (or young, etc.) and chooses blue because they like the color

  3. Someone gets the game theory wrong and chooses blue

I find it highly unlikely everybody perfectly coordinates around red. 50% is much easier to coordinate than 100%, so I find blue the better option, even if most of the people who originally found their way there are idiots.

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