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Culture War Roundup for the week of July 17, 2023

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If the west is unwilling to respect your security concerns.

If Russia would invade and conquer Spain they would complain about security concerns posed by Portugal.

Russia's problem is that they want to be treated as superpower. They are not. That is why West refused to treat their demands seriously (and they demanded for example demilitarization of Poland and similar nonstarters).

Given the events leading up to the crisis, if you were Putin, what would you have done?

Try to unfuck Russia. Starting from stealing less.

Definitely avoid speedrunning population collapse in Ukraine and Russia by increasing scope of ongoing war.

Interesting that you seem to suggest coups can be justified in light of this logic.

Yes, for example I am 100% fine with couping genocidal leaders, also when they were elected as long as there is plausible less murderous alternative. (note: not claiming that this specific one was genocidal, just giving a clear example where it would be blatantly correct if alternatives were exhausted)

I am not treating democracy procedures as the highest virtue. Note that in this specific cases current ruler had no support from population. Whether Maidan was a coup or not is an interesting question BTW.

If Russia would invade and conquer Spain they would complain about security concerns posed by Portugal.

If the Warsaw Pact incorporated Mexico and Canada, the US would complain about being surrounded by an encroaching military alliance.

Russia's problem is that they want to be treated as superpower. They are not. That is why West refused to treat their demands seriously (and they demanded for example demilitarization of Poland and similar nonstarters).

No. No, they really don’t.

Try to unfuck Russia. Starting from stealing less.

What do you think the Minsk Accords were? This is about right up there with thinking if Putin just spent a little more money on domestic social programs, NATO wouldn’t try to expand into Ukraine.

Yes, for example I am 100% fine with couping genocidal leaders.

And what’s your empirical evidence for this?

No. No, they really don’t.

To which part it refers? That Russia wants to be treated as superpower? That they are not one? That they demanded removal of all NATO military from Poland (which includes Polish military)?

And what’s your empirical evidence for this?

For what? For that I am 100% fine with couping genocidal leaders, if alternatives failed?

If the Warsaw Pact incorporated Mexico and Canada, the US would complain about being surrounded by an encroaching military alliance.

And? Not sure whether you prefer realpolitik or some naively idealistic answer but neither works out well for Russia.

To which part it refers? That Russia wants to be treated as superpower? That they are not one?

Yes.

For what? For that I am 100% fine with couping genocidal leaders, if alternatives failed?

Yes.

And? Not sure whether you prefer realpolitik or some naively idealistic answer but neither works out well for Russia.

Then you should have no problem with the way they’ve responded, given that the US is unlikely to behave any differently in comparable circumstances.

I think that for empirical evidence whether I am 100% fine with couping genocidal leaders, if alternatives failed - then comment here suffices:

I am fine with it

To which part it refers? That Russia wants to be treated as superpower? That they are not one?

Which of two? First seems obvious, second is also obvious given that they are unable to win war against Ukraine supplied a bit by NATO countries and run into series of hilarious failures.

Then you should have no problem with the way they’ve responded, given that the US is unlikely to behave any differently in comparable circumstances.

  1. USA would likely respond differently, and in fact as far as Canada goes they already proactively responded differently by ensuring that Canada and USA cooperates and Canada benefits from powerful USA rather than being endangered. (not sure about Mexico)

  2. not sure why you think that I would be fine with USA responding in such way, or even in a noticeably less evil and murderous one. I am not some cultist treating all USA actions as fine (and yes, I know about United Fruit Company and Abu Ghraib).

I am fine with it

So I’ll ask for a third time. What is your evidence that Vladimir Putin is a genocidal maniac?

Which of two? First seems obvious.

Based on what?

USA would likely respond differently.

How so? “Please Mr. Putin, will you remove your presence from our borders?” Seems to me to be the kind of think you’re suggesting. Doesn’t seem to be the kind of thing that happened during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Thankfully we had a cabinet that didn’t lead with the premise that Khrushchev was a genocidal leader.

I am not some cultist treating all USA actions as fine (and yes, I know about United Fruit Company and Abu Ghraib).

But you sure seem to think it’s the exception and not the rule.

What is your evidence that Vladimir Putin is a genocidal maniac?

Him directly causing the death of hundreds of thousands of people may give a hint. His propaganda claiming Ukraine is a "fake" nation and truly belongs to Russia may give another. But for some Putinverstehers nothing would be enough - they have Russian propaganda bookmarked to justify anything.

Him directly causing the death of hundreds of thousands of people may give a hint.

I’m waiting.

His propaganda claiming Ukraine is a "fake" nation and truly belongs to Russia may give another.

Is it a crime to believe that? He’s also stated the future of Ukraine was up to its citizens.

But for some Putinverstehers nothing would be enough - they have Russian propaganda bookmarked to justify anything.

If being anti-NATO expansion makes me a Putin blowjobber, consider me guilty. It’s interesting that for so many here, the consensus seems to be that this conflict began yesterday.

the consensus seems to be that this conflict began yesterday.

war started in 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine

full scale invasion started last year

Russian unwanted meddling started far far ago

Is it a crime to believe that?

To believe it - only against the truth. To act on it - also a crime against humanity.

If being anti-NATO expansion makes me a Putin blowjobber, consider me guilty

Your terms are acceptable.

It’s interesting that for so many here, the consensus seems to be that this conflict began yesterday.

That conflict began when Putin decided everything he can see around rightfully belongs to him. That happened sometime in mid 2000s, by my estimate.

So I’ll ask for a third time. What is your evidence that Vladimir Putin is a genocidal maniac?

I am not claiming that Putin is a genocidal maniac, and their action while evil and qualifying as war crimes are not Third Reich levels. Though we had terror bombing, kidnappings, rape/looting as accepted (though not sure how high) and so on. But I am aware that all that is relatively normal in war and their main evil was starting war.

Based on what?

Based on their inability to understand that they are not entitled to USSR territory and that their security concerns are not trumping everyones elses security concerns.

How so? “Please Mr. Putin, will you remove your presence from our borders?” Seems to me to be the kind of think you’re suggesting.

I am not 100% naive idealist, that would not work :)

No, likely also war but with less bombing of civilian targets and less hilarious incompetence. Very likely ending with lower civilian death count and lower destruction. And lesser oppression during occupation.

But you sure seem to think it’s the exception and not the rule.

I am claiming that I would prefer to be invaded by USA than Russia, but even more prefer to be not invaded in the first place. And no, I will not buy this books.

… their main evil was starting war.

Did they not make overtures to avoid it? Because they certainly did.

Based on their inability to understand that they are not entitled to USSR territory and that their security concerns are not trumping everyones elses security concerns.

Where did Putin ever claim as much? Go ahead and quote him. I’ll wait.

… with less bombing of civilian targets and less hilarious incompetence.

I wasn’t aware their track record was as bad as the US war in Iraq.

I am claiming that I would prefer to be invaded by USA than Russia, but even more prefer to be not invaded in the first place.

You also seem to prefer being more interested in answering your own questions, and not those that were asked if you. I think this is a good place to leave this conversation.

And no, I will not buy this books.

Or even read them. Be well.

Where did Putin ever claim as much? Go ahead and quote him. I’ll wait.

I have not claimed that Putin personally did so, but I think that https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-unveils-security-guarantees-says-western-response-not-encouraging-2021-12-17/ is enough

Russia said on Friday it wanted a legally binding guarantee that NATO would give up any military activity in Eastern Europe and Ukraine

"withdrawal of multinational NATO battalions from Poland and from the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania that were once in the Soviet Union" alone is a nonstarter. And given that Polish army existing at all is also NATO military activity in Eastern Europe this is a total nonstarter.

Oh, and we have

Russia has denied planning an invasion.

More comments

If Russia would invade and conquer Spain they would complain about security concerns posed by Portugal.

Ukraine isn't Spain and wanting your security concerns to be respected w/re to a country which is on your border and <300mi from your capital isn't demanding someone pretend you're a superpower, but pretend you're a country with any sovereignty whatsoever, something which is clearly a bridge too far for the US and its satrapies.

there is no serious argument that Russia, or any country, doesn't have legitimate security concerns in what happens in the country directly on its border and arguing a country claiming such is akin to demanding the world treat them as a superpower is nonsense

Try to unfuck Russia. Starting from stealing less.

are you under the impression that Russia is not far more unfucked now under Putin than before he came to power?

Definitely avoid speedrunning population collapse in Ukraine and Russia by increasing scope of ongoing war.

Russia swallowing up over 10,000,000 ethnic russians seems to be a good strategy to stave off population collapse

What pro-russian or at least neutral, non-Western sources of information do you use to form your opinion about this topic?

wanting your security concerns to be respected w/re to a country which is on your border and <300mi from your capital isn't demanding someone pretend you're a superpower, but pretend you're a country with any sovereignty whatsoever

That exact same argument would apply to Ukraine. Are they justified in treating every dead Russian as a slight reduction to “security concerns?” Maybe they should have invaded first.

Russia isn’t playing at being a superpower because they have security interests. Everyone has those. They’re playing it because they’re acting on them in a way that normal powers either can’t or won’t.

That exact same argument would apply to Ukraine.

Maybe they should have invaded first.

sure, now what? would Ukraine be playing at superpower? no

no, russia isn't playing at being a superpower because they're engaged in a conflict on their border <300mi from their capital in a region full of ethnic Russians

normal powers engaging in wars similar to the Russian/Ukraine war is not only one of "normal powers," but is seen all throughout history; it only seems reasonable to try to label this as something "normal powers" don't do because you've only known a world with an ascendant global hegemon, but this isn't the normal state of world conflict, and trying to label any country which doesn't immediately fall into line w/re a conflict on its border within a few hundred miles to its capital full of people who are co-ethnics with that country as one "pretending to be a superpower" is ridiculous

or is Azerbaijan pretending to be a Superpower because it invades Armenia and steals their land? also no

wanting your security concerns to be respected w/re to a country which is on your border and <300mi from your capital isn't demanding someone pretend you're a superpower, but pretend you're a country with any sovereignty whatsoever

It so happens that Poland also borders Ukraine and in its vital security interests is reducing Russian influence there. And yes, this directly conflicts with Russian interests. You cannot satisfy both. To say nothing about Ukrainian security concerns which are far more serious than Russian one, given that Ukraine invading Russia was absurdity and Russia continues invasions and threats of invasions.

Demanding that only Russian security concerns should be treated seriously is absurd. Maybe it should be treated more seriously from realpolitik perspective if they would actually be superpower.

And it so happens that basically everyone in that region except Russia has security concerns in direction almost exactly opposite from Russia. For obvious reasons.

But security concerns people somehow only mention Russian security concerns.

Ukraine isn't Spain

I was claiming that Russian demands are not satisfiable, after getting what they demanded they would be more powerful and escalate demands. So blocking and neutering them was a good step, if cooperation was not viable.

its satrapies

You seems to be confused about relation between USA and Poland. It does not mirror USSR and PRL.

are you under the impression that Russia is not far more unfucked now under Putin than before he came to power?

I am claiming that trying to fix Russia would be far more worth it than vastly increasing scale of a war. And that Putin has not really focused on unfucking Russia and its systematic problems.

Large part of improvements were due to horribly bad start and high oil/gas prices.

No one, not even Russia, is demanding only Russian security concerns be addressed. Two countries can have security concerns in the same area and can have goals which are mutually exclusive and yet that doesn't mean either side's "concerns" or interests are illegitimate. Your comment was an attempt to frame Russia's repeated warnings and security concerns as not just counter to Poland or whatever else, but illegitimate and to be ignored.

Russia has a long history of abiding by its agreements and its demands are entirely reasonable. I cannot say the same for the US or its satrapies. This situation is not one of an expansive Russia, but one of an expansive US repeatedly encroaching on Russian regional interests over the last 30 years, including entering fake agreements (Minsk Accords) which it never even intended abiding by and instead using it to buy time to build a military. Claiming that Russian demands are "not satisfiable" given nearly 100 years of satisfactory agreements with Russia which have been tossed recently specifically because of US violation and encroachment is plainly ridiculous.

But security concerns people somehow only mention Russian security concerns.

pretty much any communication, speech, or press release by Putin or the Russian government mentions other's security concerns; this is a flatly ridiculous claim to the point where it makes me think you are not engaging in good faith or don't have a clue what you're talking about

And that Putin has not really focused on unfucking Russia and its systematic problems.

What pro-russian or at least neutral, non-Western sources of information do you use to form your opinion about this topic?

even a passing understanding of the situation in Russia before Putin and after Putin, even during wartime, proves this to be a ridiculous belief and claim

Russia has a long history of abiding by its agreements and its demands are entirely reasonable.

Since when? With whom? Definitely not for 100 years in Russia-Ukraine relations or Russia-Poland relations.

I cannot say the same for the US or its satrapies.

You seems to continue being confused. Poland is not satrapy of USA, has distinct priorities, relations, situation, pathologies, peculiarities and context.

To repeat: Poland is not satrapy of USA. Even Belarus is not really a satrapy of Russia.

This continued assertion makes me think you are not engaging in good faith or don't have a clue what you're talking about.

its demands are entirely reasonable

Not at all, its attempts to recolonize Poland (see say https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-unveils-security-guarantees-says-western-response-not-encouraging-2021-12-17/ - not a great source but as starter example may be fitting) are not reasonable at all and they can fuck off. There is a reason why Poland send hundreds of tanks into Ukraine within first months of war. And I really like irony of tanks made on order of USSR blocking now Russian imperial ambitions and killing Russian soldiers.

pretty much any communication, speech, or press release by Putin or the Russian government mentions other's security concerns

I was referring to commentary on internet that keep to referring how we should care about Russian security concerns - and very often not mentioning security concerns of others. I admit that official Russian communication tends to be more subtle.

not only is having "distinct priorities, relations, situation, pathologies, peculiarities and context" not mutually exclusive with being a satrapy, it was a major driver of debacle to Persians trying to control their explicit satrapies in history from which the word comes from

Poland is a satrapy of the United States, likely one of its most ardent ones in Europe besides the yapping lunatics that are the Baltic states.

Since when? With whom?

for the last 100 years with the US, Europe, China, Japan, OPEC, most countries in the world, in agreements on missiles, nuclear weapons, bioweapons, trade, exchange, and a wide variety of other agreements including in these exact conflict with France and Germany which have already admitted to using this agreements specifically for duplicitous reasons

to be honest, based on your comments here and to others in thread I do not think this will be an interesting and worthwhile discussion

good luck

just to take some examples....

for the last 100 years with the US, Europe

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov%E2%80%93Ribbentrop_Pact#Secret_protocol

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum

Japan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet%E2%80%93Japanese_Neutrality_Pact#Soviet_denunciation

bioweapons

https://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2012/07/23/mysteries-of-the-soviet-biological-weapons-program/

I mean, post-1972 they were violating their own commitments to the Biological Weapons Convention — a treaty with no verification methods, but still a treaty. They were also completely convinced that the US must be doing their own BW work and violating the treaty themselves. Why? Because it’s what they’d do. (A nice illustration of the errors of assuming the enemy thinks like you do.)

I could go further but I will go to sleep now. But

Russia has a long history of abiding by its agreements and its demands are entirely reasonable.

is deeply hilarious claim and blatant lie. Especially when covering last 100 years and covering Europe - what includes Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Ukraine, Hungary, Romania and Moldova. And so on. Are you REALLY going to claim that Russia was abiding by its agreements with them for last 100 years? And its demands are entirely reasonable?

Are you now going to claim that mass murder and large scale deportations were entirely reasonable or deny USSR-led mass murder and deportations? Or stop responding? I am kind of curious. Any of this variants is going to be hilarious.