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Notes -
Once again, I must point out that I'm not endorsing betting with absolutely anyone who asks. At least in rat and rat-adjacent circles, almost anyone with any degree of reputation who makes bets falls into the "you have justified confidence in X", and if it turns out to be unjustified, it's often in hindsight.
Since, barring unresolvable cases, someone must have been wrong for the bet to pay out, calling being wrong the same as unjustified isn't warranted.
Certainly the argument that I don't value the money is trivially false, I'm a Third Worlder. Nor does the risk averse aspect play into it, because I have very strong confidence in my assessment.
You do you. If my reputation doesn't meet your requirements, then so be it. I still think worse or you for turning it down, especially for trivial stakes. After all, unlike simply lending someone the money straight away, neither of us will be out on anything right now since I never asked for money to change hands until it resolves.
Still, points for a smart decision, because I do expect that if you took it up, you'd lose the money. If I didn't, why would I even offer?
There's no bright line between "you" and "anyone on the internet who asks". Which means the best policy is to not do these bets with you.
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