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Culture War Roundup for the week of July 10, 2023

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If bets are a tax on bullshit, they are the regressive tax that is put there by special interest groups in the government to benefit themselves.

Your willingness to bet can mean

  • you have justified confidence in X.
  • you have unjustified confidence in X
  • you are bad at general risk assessment or just very foolhardy with your money
  • You are rich or otherwise value money less than the other guy, and you're using your money to buy status
  • you aren't very risk averse. I won't take a bet with a positive expected value that gives me a 90% chance of winning money and a 10% chance of losing, unless the amounts are unbalanced by far more than 9 to 1.

I'm not going to bet with someone unless at a minimum I'd be willing to lend them money. And I'm not going to lend money to some guy over the Internet.

Once again, I must point out that I'm not endorsing betting with absolutely anyone who asks. At least in rat and rat-adjacent circles, almost anyone with any degree of reputation who makes bets falls into the "you have justified confidence in X", and if it turns out to be unjustified, it's often in hindsight.

Since, barring unresolvable cases, someone must have been wrong for the bet to pay out, calling being wrong the same as unjustified isn't warranted.

Certainly the argument that I don't value the money is trivially false, I'm a Third Worlder. Nor does the risk averse aspect play into it, because I have very strong confidence in my assessment.

I'm not going to bet with someone unless at a minimum I'd be willing to lend them money. And I'm not going to lend money to some guy over the Internet.

You do you. If my reputation doesn't meet your requirements, then so be it. I still think worse or you for turning it down, especially for trivial stakes. After all, unlike simply lending someone the money straight away, neither of us will be out on anything right now since I never asked for money to change hands until it resolves.

Still, points for a smart decision, because I do expect that if you took it up, you'd lose the money. If I didn't, why would I even offer?

Once again, I must point out that I'm not endorsing betting with absolutely anyone who asks.

There's no bright line between "you" and "anyone on the internet who asks". Which means the best policy is to not do these bets with you.