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Culture War Roundup for the week of September 12, 2022

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I know Germany is a country. It is possible Germany is not a country. These are mutually exclusive statements. If I said "I believe Germany is a country. It is possible Germany is not a country" that is fine. If you know something, then it is not possible for the reverse to be true. Because if it is then you did not KNOW.

And I submit, that you do not know for a fact that Marshall picked her for that reason. You may heavily suspect it. Your prior may be very high. But you cannot, absent specific knowledge of that specific decision know.

If I cast a black woman in a show, even if it were because she was the best pick, I would be a fool not to market it thusly. It's guaranteed press. Is Marshall a dedicated progressive or a calculating PR man? We don't KNOW. Because if he were the second he would not say so.

So there we go, in this world there is a scenario in which she was picked on talent and marketed on race. And we would not be able to tell the difference.

They're not exclusive at all. It is possible Germany isn't a country. For instance, Germany could be renamed Doinkland, we could change the definition of country, etc. There's no natural law that says Germany must be a country.

However, Germany is a country. Plenty of ways it could cease to be a country, but those ways haven't come about. They're possible, that's all.

As for the rest -- no, I know. I'm not going to deny myself the ability to acknowledge the world around me and the actors in it doing things. I reject your appeal to epistemic helplessness.

It is possible Germany isn't a country.

Yes and if that was so, when I said "I know Germany is a country" I was wrong to claim so. I thought I knew but I was incorrect. and given that can be the case about Germany, for anything less certain in this environment , I should hedge. I am pretty sure Germany is a country. I am 99.9% sure Germany is a country.

Don't confuse knowledge for inductive conclusions.

I'm not confusing anything. I said what I meant and meant what I said; the only stumbling block is on your end, and I'm not going to deal with it for you.