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Notes -
You will not grasp her with your mind
or cover with a common label,
for Russia is one of a kind —
believe in her, if you are able...
https://ruverses.com/fyodor-tyutchev/russia-cannot-be-known-by-the-mind/424/
Like many, I have overcorrected on Wagner's mutiny somewhat, though less so than e.g. Karlin who had found a new delightful opportunity for youthful wonder. At this point, the story looks boring and in line with what normal pro-Western analysts are saying, e.g. here or here (I don't follow the war very closely though, there surely are better sources).
For a while now, MoD has been in the process of first diminishing and then dismantling Wagner as an autonomous force (for understandable reasons that all functional states have figured out by, like, Renaissance). Prig is, well, a warlord whose relevance overwhelmingly rides on controlling a private army, so he was understandably opposed to it, justifying his opposition with (arguably, maybe, true) arguments about relative performance and the great common task of fighting the accursed hohol. His contempt for Shoigu was perhaps a little affected to resonate with the common man (and indeed, even pro-regime voenkors shitting on Wagner now can't bring themselves to say that Shoigu&Gerasimov have legitimacy, they'll just get clown-emojid to hell and back – incidentally, as of now there's 420K clown reacts under Prigozhin's declaration of turning back). His goals were ensuring his survival at a minimum, and his unchallenged control over Wagner at the maximum.
I believe we don't yet know how this will shake out. The default outcome, corroborated by the renewal of treason case against Prig, is that Putin+Luka have prevailed and shooed everyone into apparent compromise, which just means postponed execution for Prig and likely his inner circle. Maybe not – the murky current status of Wagnerites suggests there's uncertainty remaining. It was close anyway. Prig has failed in securing his maximalist terms (removal of MoD heads who directly threaten him) but has successfully demonstrated that their worthlessness is a Schelling point and the army's integrity is hanging by a thread. It's just a thicker thread than he hoped. Maybe it's thin enough for Putin to fear touching him again.
My prediction is 60% Wagner dissolving and Prigozhin being eliminated in some manner (maybe not killed but actually convicted, maybe he offs himself), 25% Prigozhin, Utkin etc. somehow weaseling out of it, brokering some deal with Luka and either just chilling in Belarus, «going missing», or escaping to… Africa?, and 15% «anything goes», because Russia is, after all, a magical place.
P.S. Lukashenko has always had more agency and character than Putin, this only changed somewhat after Russian aid in suppression of Belarus protests and EU issuing Luka a black mark; as you can see, he owes Putin his very survival, yet cannot be forced into substantially committing to the war. For years, he was propping up his quasi-Soviet economy with Russian subsidies and markets. Hell, he's the nominal supreme commander of the Union State, He's a tough and crafty man (also much taller, and Putin straight up fears tall people), a real self-made dictator who uses Russia/Putin for his convenience and ponders incurred obligations at his leisure. But the same is true for Kadyrov, Tokayev (also rescued by Russia, also lukewarm), probably even Shoigu – literally anyone with their own army and power base.
Putin's image of a strongman is as fraudulent and laughable as his mafia empire's image of some based Orthodox Christian Bear. He's our curse, nothing more. A murderous curse, but not particularly politically savvy.
Ok so I’m not understanding what people think Prigs goal was if it was not overthrow. He marched on Moscow unopposed. What didn’t he expect? Actually making it to Moscow and having a bloody battle? What were the alternate scenarios? Putin crushes Wagner faster or Putin made a faster proposal to make Prog happy? Or I he could have assumed more of the military would have backed him.
I have a big issue in not being able to see what scenerio Prog thought would play out. Putin telling Prog I love you bud here’s Shogs and Gerasimovs heads is the only better scenerio I see he could have expected other than taking power.
The 4-D chess scenerios just seem way out there because it made Putin look weak and that Moscow is exposed to the next general with some troops.
You’re forgetting here that Wagner Group are mercenaries. Mercenary armies marching against the cities which hired them happens all the time throughout history. They don’t do it because they want to overthrow the regime. They do it because they want to get paid.
I do not know the financial situation of Wagner. Perhaps this is not about payment in money. Maybe Russian troops really did fire upon Wagner mercenaries. What’s clear is that Prigozhin felt ripped off, and as a mercenary leader, marching his army to the doorstep of the palace is a tried and true method of litigating counterparty risk. It’s much easier for Putin to give these guys what they want than it is to risk urban warfare in Moscow.
“Merceneries”. These aren’t men without a country. They are still Russians. I don’t know the exact amount they have better pay, but they aren’t guys fighting for a random flag paying them more money.
I... don't have a good model of how mercenary these mercenaries are or how committed to Russia they are. I can definitely imagine having citizenship in a state and still having far more stake in my mercenary group than in that state. Especially in a state like Russia. And I think the believability of that is what makes marching on the capital a viable tactic for getting paid. (believability because, you don't even need to intend to ever follow through as long as you can win the game of chicken.)
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There is no next general. The army is gelded and atomized; they could only support an external force articulating their dissatisfaction with S&G. And they failed to support that force.
Yes, I think Prig desperately gambled on Putin fearing general mutiny and loss of control of big parts of the army, and personally guaranteeing, overriding S&G's authority, that all attempts of MoD to absorb Wagner are hereby terminated. When it became clear that the army, for the moment, won't seriously stop him from getting to Moscow, but also won't actively help him fight whatever loyalist forces Putin can muster, and that Putin doesn't plan to give up on S&G or their plans, he folded. The key reason was probably high-ranking Army figures like Surovikin refusing to endorse the mutiny.
Kamil Galeev thinks there are more coming and he seems to have been right more than mosts. Putin looked weak. You just need a general popular with other generals. Or you could see a break away Republic by a local governor or some oligarchs. Siberia is where the wealth comes from so with the army artitted perhaps a few oligarchs try and take over some wealth. Who knows there are many possible scenerios that I don’t know enough about local power structures to know what they can do. When you lose a world war you usually lose your empire.
Galeev is a delusional Turkic supremacist and tries to conjure his dreams of Russian dissolution into reality with prolific twitter posting. He has been right exactly once – predicting that Russia will not succeed at conquering Ukraine, the rest is downstream of that take; but this could have been and was predicted by anyone with a modicum of insight into Russian system, e.g. me.
This obsession with signaling is predicated on the idea that people in power don't know the real state of events and have to infer them from tea leaves and gestures, and is exactly why most popular analysis is hopeless. Looks don't matter, only actual capabilities. Putin looks like a pitiful monkey and he has been looking this way for a long time, but he has proven still having the capability to make Wagner run. This is enough. It'll be cold comfort for a rebelling general to know that as he dies, he's taking a few batallions' worth of FSO with him.
So, Surovikin? He's refused to join the mutiny.
There isn't anyone. Putin has worked extraordinarily well to purge every charismatic figure from the army. Killing people cooler than him is his whole edge.
Yes, well, which republic? Tyva or Chechnya, maybe. If Kadyrov and Shoigu remain "loyal", this doesn't happen. Governor, oligarchs – haha, as if.
Russia can well unravel, don't get me wrong. But this will have very little to do with the fact that Putin has looked weak the other day.
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