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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   33488 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of June 19, 2023

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No. I would say Prig's actions will have either large immediate consequences (days) or very little consequences otherwise. Some internal oligarchy power play is irrelevant.

Yes. Oligarchy power plays are only irrelevant when the oligarchy is irrelevant- but in Russia, these oligarchs and their support networks have been very, very relevant in shaping Russian security policy and how Russia engages with the war both politically and socially. How the oligarchy reshuffles in the course of the Ukrainian war is one of the most significant impacts of the Ukrainian war since it became clear the Russians wouldn't win a conventional military victory.

The sanctioned purging of the hypernationalist / Wagnerite spectrum is not only a narrowing of Putin's own support base, it shapes the dynamic of what public support there is for the war and what peace terms are acceptable by neutering one of the only supportive (and most hardline) segments of Russian society, it shapes the foreign policy priorities of the security establishment, and critically it shapes the potential post-Ukraine and even post-Putin power dynamics.

To pick just one example: despite hiccups, Wagner and the Chechans were relative allies against the MOD, despite their own differences and issues. While Kadyrov would/did/has absolutely prioritize personal loyalty to Putin above any desire to join his ally in mutiny, in different circumstances (i.e. Putin had a heart attack), Kadyrov and Prigozhin could easily have been allies-of-convenience in shaping a post-Putin environment, with dynamics such as advancing eachother's autonomy and devolving Russia to a more warlord-style state. When Wagners' brothers-in-anti-MOD-autonomy are purged, Kadyrov will be isolated- weakening his position- and Shugoi will use the Wagner example as grounds to consolidate MOD control (and expand his own patronage/influence network) over other semi-autonomous oligarch mercenary groups. Such a challenge and change to potential trajectories is the epitome of a relevant consequence.

So, how's the consequences?

Last paragraph seems to have hit the nail on the head as far as predictions go, for just one example.

I'm sure of it. You really need to appreciate the fine art of westerners to sell their word piss as diamonds.

You really did a multi-month necro just to get a last word and block, huh? That is sincerely amusing, thanks for making a good morning.

I don't care, sorry.

  • -22

Then don't post.

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