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Wagner has no chance of doing anything. Russian MoD can easily crush them. Putin used Wagner to avoid mass mobilisation early on but this strategy has now backfired. He also likes playing all sides against each other to keep them on their toes. This includes his own generals.
Prigozhin simply didn't understand he was just a chess piece in a greater game, he thought he was an actual leader. He will learn very shortly who is the real boss. Ultimately he isn't a threat, but this entire situation was allowed to develop because of Putin's inability to call a war what it needs to be called: a war, rather than his SMO bullshit. He should never have allowed these militias to proliferate and should have called up a much bigger mobilisation drive to begin with. But that's water under the bridge. Wagner as a group is now a spent force in Russia. They could survive as mercs in MENA/Africa, going back to their original, smaller roots.
That Wagner is unlikely to succeed in a coup is not the same thing as not producing any consequences (doing anything). The threat of Prigozhin's rebellion isn't in the likely doomed attempt- it's in the second and third order effects of the purges to follow not just against Wagner, but Wagner's allies, and the apathetic sorts of bystanders who didn't oppose them with fervency.
Prigozhin and Wagner aren't politically significant in the sense that 'Prigozhin thought he was a real boss.' Prigozhin is well aware, hence why he went on his antics for publicity, and targetting his feud of the MOD bosses, and the instigation event being Shugoi's alleged attempts to both administratively dismantle Wagner's independence (Soldier contract demands) and potential bombing. Prigozhin likely isn't under delusions that he's 'a real boss'- he's likely under very clear understanding that he was targetted and doomed, and is deciding to go down fighting.
Prigozhin and Wagner are politically significant in that they are representative/rallying points for a key contingent of what you might call 'the non-state nationalism.' Wagner is... I hate to use vague terms live 'Avatar' or 'totem,' but symbollic of the idea of a Russian strength that's not simply the state. Signalling support for Wagner was a way to show your support for Russia as a good nationalist even if you opposed/detested/thought Shugoi and the MOD were incompetent/wrong/ruinous. Being pro-Wagner was a form of acceptable criticism of the regime by people who were fellow travelers. It was a nexus through which anti-Shugoi factions could persist and loosely coordinate.
When Shugoi wins- and I agree that he's likely to win this- he is not going to stop at just Wagner leaders. He's going to go after their allies, which includes not only other disaffected oligarchs (it's own risk to the system if/when a class of greedy opportunists opportunistically move against eachother to take eachother's stuff), but their support networks as well, which includes their media/social presence spheres. And in that, what was previously swarths of officially tolerated opinions- and criticisms- will no longer be tolerated, but officially suppressible.
What this will mean is up for debate, but the reason Wagner was a totem of alternative nationalists was that they didn't want to support the existing national symbol of strength- the MOD-military- in the first place. Removing the alternative doesn't mean people will transfer their favor to the persons/institutions that did so... and is likely to be suppressing them either actively or with open suspicion. Dismantling parts of the oligarchy doesn't mean that only the traitorous parts are subject to being targetted- or that only the traitors will resist and fly back.
This is an event that, even in failure, will change how the war-supporting base view the government fighting the war, and how the oligarchs move against eachother. Either would be significant on their own, and this is before Putin's typical insecurities drive further responses against either group.
And there's likely no significance in any of that. That's the nature, the main modus operandi of russian elites. You may see some bones fly out from beneath the rug and it'll be obvious who won, as Churchill was saying. As long as Putin is left standing, and there's very little doubt that he will, nothing will change strategically. There's enough people who want to be a bit richer so it's not hard to replace couple of not-loyal enough oligarchs. Although there's always some chance for something...
No. I would say Prig's actions will have either large immediate consequences (days) or very little consequences otherwise. Some internal oligarchy power play is irrelevant.
Yes. Oligarchy power plays are only irrelevant when the oligarchy is irrelevant- but in Russia, these oligarchs and their support networks have been very, very relevant in shaping Russian security policy and how Russia engages with the war both politically and socially. How the oligarchy reshuffles in the course of the Ukrainian war is one of the most significant impacts of the Ukrainian war since it became clear the Russians wouldn't win a conventional military victory.
The sanctioned purging of the hypernationalist / Wagnerite spectrum is not only a narrowing of Putin's own support base, it shapes the dynamic of what public support there is for the war and what peace terms are acceptable by neutering one of the only supportive (and most hardline) segments of Russian society, it shapes the foreign policy priorities of the security establishment, and critically it shapes the potential post-Ukraine and even post-Putin power dynamics.
To pick just one example: despite hiccups, Wagner and the Chechans were relative allies against the MOD, despite their own differences and issues. While Kadyrov would/did/has absolutely prioritize personal loyalty to Putin above any desire to join his ally in mutiny, in different circumstances (i.e. Putin had a heart attack), Kadyrov and Prigozhin could easily have been allies-of-convenience in shaping a post-Putin environment, with dynamics such as advancing eachother's autonomy and devolving Russia to a more warlord-style state. When Wagners' brothers-in-anti-MOD-autonomy are purged, Kadyrov will be isolated- weakening his position- and Shugoi will use the Wagner example as grounds to consolidate MOD control (and expand his own patronage/influence network) over other semi-autonomous oligarch mercenary groups. Such a challenge and change to potential trajectories is the epitome of a relevant consequence.
So, how's the consequences?
Last paragraph seems to have hit the nail on the head as far as predictions go, for just one example.
I'm sure of it. You really need to appreciate the fine art of westerners to sell their word piss as diamonds.
You really did a multi-month necro just to get a last word and block, huh? That is sincerely amusing, thanks for making a good morning.
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I don't care, sorry.
Then don't post.
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Why do you assume that MoD is in any position to fight? That soldiers will shoot at all?
I think the mutiny will fail, but mostly for boring logistical reasons and because their actual targets are guarded by the FSO, as again Galeev notes (that said, the role of FSO is obvious to anyone who's looked even once at the makeup of Russian internal forces). It's far from obvious that most of the regular army will even bother engaging them. Prig's reputation is far higher than anyone's in there, esprit de corps in the Russian army is non-existent (by design), and frankly they would rather pass the buck to the next regiment. The whole army is dysfunctional, no matter what Twitter guys say about offensive, counteroffensive or whatever.
We'll see if he's negotiated this with Kadyrov soon.
Even if his allegedly 25k-strong PMC can reach Moscow in full strength without leaving 10k as a rear guard, that's not enough to take a city the size of Moscow (or cross the Oka) even if everyone except the FSO decides to sit the fight out.
If Prigožin's not just fatally off his meds, then I can think of a couple of explanations for why he would try something like that
he thinks he has allies he can rely on to flip the balance, perhaps:
Dyumin, who has ties in both the military and the FSO and is the governor of Tula on the other side of the Oka
someone in Tamanskaja or Kantemirovskaja divisions
Kuznecov or even Zolotov
he has no plans to go far, just to carve out his own demesne in the south the size of Denikin's
he's just desperate because he knew his days were numbered so he went all in
It doesn't really need to take a city the size of Moscow to work, however. It just needs to take the government- but especially MOD- infrastructure. That wouldn't be enough in a society with high social cohesion- but the Russian state is, deliberately, much more fragile for a lack of popular investment. In lack of that civic society resilience where the state infrastructure is not the institution, Moscow may be a city of 12 million requiring divisions to siege, but the parts that 'matter' are only a fraction of the size, especially if few people actually try to stop you.
And here your question of 'thinks he has allies' could be reframed as 'who else might be behind Wagner's effort.' We discuss this like Prigozin is acting on his own- but Wagner has always been an extension of certain parts of the security state. If Prigozin is not the actor, but the agent, then he may not be so opposed- or have allies in waiting- when he arrives.
I've no personal investment in this point- I think personal interest is enough and let Occam's Razor hold the rest- but given how the Russian state seems to have been surprised by this, 'why didn't the people watching Wagner notice this' could easily be answered by- or suspected to be- 'because the people watching them were in on it.'
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What if FSO is dysfunctional and not good at fighting either ?
It's pretty odd that the whole of Prigozhin's attempt hasn't been yet been curtailed by airstrikes.
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