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Notes -
I mean, it seems likely that Russia chose to initiate the invasion when they did because 2022 was the last year before their population of fighting-age males starts to drop off
It was quite literally now or never, from that perspective. Don't have to project far in the future to see what's happening now, just notice the trajectory.
Depends on exact way you define "fighting age". If you define it as 18-27, then it will increase for some years in near future, when people born in 2006-2016 enter service.
Also, Ukraine has noticeably worse fertility that Russia, even if the large portion of that difference is Russia's ethnic minorities. You don't need to have much army -- just more than opponent.
All of this about fuss about Russia's falling TFR is insignificant compared to what difference of having competent generals in army makes.
The real problem for Russia was Ukraine's ongoing effort to reinforce Ukrainian identity, and it looks attacking in 2022 already was too late.
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