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Notes -
Sort of?
I have to conserve a little bit of probability for the fact that it is possible that some nonhuman intelligence
A) Exists in the galaxy; and
B) Was able to send probes to our planet.
A) is just the Fermi paradox, I have little to add to that discourse. If we consider B), though, any intelligence that was able to send probes out to other planets can probably design them to be extremely difficult for a sub-Kardashev 1 civilization to detect, much less capture.
So I am actually willing to believe that we are being observed by aliens who are so extremely good at psyops and stealth and misinformation that they can make it impossible to verify their existence and what little evidence we have is simply so inconclusive that only the most conspiracy-minded would jump to the conclusion of alien interlopers.
The question of why they would simply observe us and never visibly interfere or attempt contact is an open one, but hardly a full refutation.
End of the day the idea isn't inherently more loopy than the simulation hypothesis. But in both instances there's not much for a good rationalist to DO with this information and thus it kind of just falls out of the equation pending further evidence.
And of course, this doesn't lend any credence to any particular person's account of alien encounters or conspiracies of alien overlords. I'm not saying I believe any particular theory or story.
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