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Notes -
Russia or an accident, which could very well have been caused by Russia even if the specific timing wasn't.
There is little to no upside for Ukraine here, while there are significant pros for Russia. The propaganda wins would both be minimal and completely unneeded, as well as significant risk that the operation is discovered; at the same time as it significantly hinders their imminent/current offensive.
The somewhat muted russian media response could indicate that at least the timing was an accident, or that it was a panicked decision.
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