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Culture War Roundup for the week of May 15, 2023

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It doesn't seem obvious to me that the boost towards a bad actor's capacity for destruction will outstrip the government's surveillance boon.

If the threat model that governments are concerned about is terrorists using AI to help them build a superweapon that can cause megadeaths (or worse), then the government agencies have to win every time, while the terrorists only have to win once. Anything less than omniscience and omnipotence isn't good enough.

I concede your point. The remaining question is how much do LLMs (and the like) improve a terrorist's capacity to cause megadeaths.

I'm assuming most wouldn't even work, but there's a chance there might be some low-hanging-fruit that's surprisingly easy to produce.

This is most likely true but even so my assumption would be that governments are already ahead of the curve here. They have the capacity and interest to generate entire libraries worth of theoretical chemical weapons and also would have access to the relevant expertise to sort through the churn. The state already has a method for regulating broadly available dangerous compounds, like ammonium nitrate.