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As a rule of thumb, prices don't go down. Inflation is caused by an increase in the money supply. In this case it's caused by the fact that a number of major governments decided to spend several years printing money like there was no tomorrow, and then tomorrow came. The only way to undo that would be to round up all the money they printed and destroy it. They would never do that, so it won't happen.
If inflation stabilizes, wages might eventually rise to match prices.
MV = PQ
Possible explanations for inflation include money supply growing, the number of exchanges increasing, and/or the economy shrinking. If the money supply increases apace with the economy, no inflation will occur. If the money supply increases slower than the economy grows, deflation will occur. And "money supply" includes not only greenbacks, but money lent into existance via fractional reserve banking.
You are correct that the fed will not allow this to happen, but it's not because they'd have to physically round up and destroy greenbacks to cause deflation.
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I agree that's a likely culprit, and I hated the crazy COVID spending, but is it the only culprit? Prices went up around the Russia war, and everyone said that much of the price rise was due to supply chain problems. Like, because gas was so much pricier, it impacted every good that requires gas to transport. Couldn't that cause massive price increases irrespective of how much money supply there is?
Money supply went nearly vertical during Covid, increasing by about 30%: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
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Things like covid and the Russia-Ukraine war probably slowed the US's return to its long-term trend of production, and thus had some effect on inflation. However, you can explain the vast majority of inflation (as well as the slowdown right now) by what happened to the money supply:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php
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I think the war was less of a cause and more of an effect. Putin chose to invade when he did because he knew the economic conditions would make it harder for the West to impose sanctions. The war did raise energy prices, but when people say things like "supply chain issues", they mean, "Manufacturer X, the world's only producer of component A, has a 6-month order backlog because of lockdowns etc. Manufacturer Y cannot produce component B without component A. Ford needs component B to make F-150s. -> Your local dealership cannot get F-150s and is selling the ones they still have for $10,000 above sticker price."
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