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I was thinking in % as accurate as a human, but didn't say that. I'll correct my original post.
I was also assuming it wouldn't be as good as a human, because of course a general model wouldn't accidentally be better than a specialist... Or would it?
I don't think it would be that hard to devise an experiment to get at least a rough idea of it's capabilities. Get some doctors, maybe professors, to devise questions of the sort OP was generating, present them to LLMs and real doctors (and maybe non-doctors with Google for an extra point of comparison), then have the professors grade the answers blind. I recall people giving LLMs math problems in this way, but I don't know if experiments have been performed with any rigor.
To your final point: what is the purpose of a doctor? Is it to heal at all costs, or is it to make people feel better? Many people go to doctors seeking specific prescription medication as a goal, when they could cure their ailment in a better but more laborious way. Some of them don't even have an ailment and only desire the effect of the meds. Many people also have procedures performed which physically make them less healthy, but fulfill their desires.
So, what should an LLM say to these people? "Don't take the pills, exercise" or "don't have surgery, improve your social life?"
I suppose it's not a new problem, but it does move the power and responsibility. Who is it moving to though?
If it interests you, GPT-4 successfully passed the USMLE, a pretty difficult exam that is intended to be a benchmark for the minimum level of competence a doctor needs to be able to practise. I'd say that counts for a lot.
I've thrown GPT 3.5 at a significant number of medical professionals, since I have several in my close and extended family. And even that antiquated model was sufficient to impress them, so I think the bar was already beaten before 4 showed up!
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Just for the record, self made human is a real doctor, or a good enough liar to convincingly pass for one. His op is basically him starting your test and being blown away by the initial results.
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