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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   35348 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of April 3, 2023

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I've soured on the concept of ubiquitous electric vehicles very quickly in the past few months.

  • The risks of batteries spontaneously combusting are high enough, and they're hard enough to extinguish, that you probably don't want to store them in close proximity to each other for very long.

https://prospect.org/environment/2023-01-26-firefighter-hell-electric-car-battery-fire/

https://www.npr.org/2023/03/11/1162732820/e-bike-scooter-lithium-ion-battery-fires

Comparatively, internal combustion engines are probably the most well-understood tech on the planet and thus one of the safest.

  • Electrification of bus fleets is probably impractical/impossible because of the scheduling issue: to keep consistent service when individual buses will need HOURS of time to recharge, which means MORE busses to maintain service, which means more space to store them while they recharge, thus more infrastructure investments etc. etc.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221721009140

https://whyy.org/articles/septas-cracking-battery-buses-raise-questions-about-the-future-of-electric-transit/

https://twitter.com/christofspieler/status/1643325106368704514

https://twitter.com/DavidZipper/status/1643261155106799616

Let us not even speak of Semitrailers, Boats, and Jet Airplanes.

  • It poses multiple issues for anyone off-roading or driving far off the grid, all the more so if they haul heavy loads. They also do NOT tolerate water very well. Good luck fording rivers.

https://www.topspeed.com/the-rivian-r1t-is-considered-the-most-off-road-capable-electric-pickup-truck-yet-but-is-it-really/

https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1636023947224555520

They're also heavier because of the battery weight, and consider the aforementioned fire issue. Add in that if your area experiences a blizzard, hurricane or other disaster that takes down the power grid, you're double fucked if your only transportation is an EV.

  • They literally won't be able to extract the necessary resources quickly enough to replace the current cars on the road. Maybe that's the plan.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/making-the-entire-u-s-car-fleet-electric-could-cause-lithium-shortages/

https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a42417327/lithium-supply-batteries-electric-vehicles/

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Qf85EuQKWeQ

And finally:

  • Even if everyone is driving an electric car, it won't do much for emissions if the power sources are still emitting carbon.

In short, it is hard to see the heavy push for full electric vehicles as anything other than a virtue signal (since it is a very visible sign of 'progress' even if it does little to address the alleged problem) and a bit of a punishment for industries that would otherwise probably resist the Cathedral's will.

But nobody I've seen is willing or able to make the compelling case that the goals being set are likely to be achieved on schedule, nor is anyone willing to suffer any consequences if they're not.

So basically for this plan to work it's going to assume some incredible leaps in technology and resource availability in the next 5 or so years. OR for people to accept a major decrease in their standard of living in order to afford new EVs. HMMMMMMMM.

And if EVs are going to be more expensive than internal combustion vehicles (they are) it just slams the poorest with an expense they can't easily handle.

If it proceeds as I expect, then they'll maintain the strict requirements on emissions but just add in various carveouts on the basis of various favored groups 'needing' to keep using ICE or for 'equitable' reasons.

But these are not things that will actually confront the Biden Administration. They won't have to accept responsibility for consequences that are nearly 10 years off, nor will any of their constituents take them to task over this, and for some reason the major auto manufacturers seem to be rolling over and playing along.

So I guess I just plan to keep my little gas powered car working for as long as possible, and assume they won't make gas powered vehicles that are already on the road illegal just yet.

But these are not things that will actually confront the Biden Administration. They won't have to accept responsibility for consequences that are nearly 10 years off, nor will any of their constituents hold them to task over this, and for some reason the major auto manufacturers seem to be rolling over and playing along.

I think auto manufacturers are taking EVs as an opportunity to change what owning a car even means. Which is to say, you don't. Ever. EVs will increasingly have all but the most core functionality, and possibly even that, tied to monthly subscriptions. Which might sound like a lease, except it'll be far, far worse. You'll still need to pony up the $40,000 for the EV, plus the subscriptions that make it a car you'd actually want to drive like you used to own, plus you are still responsible for replacing the $20,000 DRM'ed unrepairable OEM batteries in it after 10 years.

There is plenty in it for auto manufacturers. They aren't rolling over, they are slathering at the mouth to make more money off doing way less, and effectively abolishing meaningful car ownership forever.

I could see them trying to adopt Apple's business model, in that event.

Making cars into something that you EXPECT to replace every 5 years (if that) rather than something you drive until the wheels fall off or that you pass on to your kids so they can drive it until the wheels fall off.

And, like Apple products, make them near impossible to repair on your own or through third-party shops, so you're locked into their environment from the time you first buy, and then eventually 'force' you to upgrade to keep receiving support.

And of course the fact that with electric cars you can make people pay to unlock certain performance capabilities once they already own the car.

Seems like the goal would to dissuade aftermarket modification of any kind.

I actually do expect to see 'kit cars' make a resurgence in the relatively near future.

Charging shouldn’t be much of an issue. The busses just need to be designed so that batteries can be swapped in a few minutes. That kind of quick battery change is common in factories and warehouses that have even a small number of electric forklifts in constant use. Busses would probably be more difficult due to the larger size, but I don’t see any reason to think that’s an insurmountable problem.

The busses just need to be designed so that batteries can be swapped in a few minutes.

This understates the actual challenge given the location, size, and complexity of batteries which hold enough charge for Buses. You're assuming away the hardest part of the process.

https://www.heavydutyslide.com/upload/Admin/images/OREOS-4X-batteries.gif

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ko5z6M_o85U/UQBMK4IhNbI/AAAAAAAAAZA/sqOsGUv53dk/s1600/Laval+electric+bus.jpg

https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a668f1080bd5e34d18a7e76/1562049452197-F6CDV67PWQ8TSOMSH5PL/TS_How_Electric_Bus_Works_InfoGraphic_02.jpg?format=1000w

Also see the link about the busses literally cracking due to the increased weight.

And solving for those issues increases the expense of the product. Surmountable does not, in any way, mean practical when there's an obviously superior solution already in use. It's literally a choice between gas pumps, which are, again, one of the simplest and well-understood techs, vs. new battery swap tech, which even in the best case is ADDITIONAL infrastructure that must be maintained.

It's closer, comparatively, to having to swap out the engine on an ICE bus every day. It's laughable to suggest such an option when the existing tech works well.

If Tesla hasn't even got that tech working yet I'm not particularly expecting it to reach adoption for busses anytime soon.

And, I cannot overemphasize the issue of spontaneous fires

So this still falls on the "counting on massive tech innovations in short order" problem.

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