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Culture War Roundup for the week of April 3, 2023

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I think your formalities look fine. I appreciate the clear thesis and the provision of sources. Thought I would have liked direct links to articles on sites like phys.org or energiewende. At least when using a phone, it is not easy to navigate their whole site.

Now, for the argument.

Dr. Hall suggests an EROI of 10-15 is needed for modern quality of life, but this hinges on assumptions about efficiency. Does adding healthcare really take us from 10:1 to 12:1? Does it have to, or can we reduce bloat without reducing quality of life?

I am not convinced that renewable EROI is so low. Estimating the EROI for any source is contentious, and I would like to see newer attempts. A casual search is dominated by articles following the Scientific American feature in 2013, and if the issue is significant, I’d expect it to have gotten more attention over time. The “renewables KO’d?” article specifically argues against a paper, claiming that it was biased by the nuclear lobby, and that European renewable EROI is higher than suggested.

Nuclear presents an interesting problem. While the current known deposits are limited, it is a problem of demand more than supply. As the usage of uranium increased, the amount of uranium which is worth exploiting would also increase. According to this site there is significant opportunity to expand production and find new deposits. New technology will also improve efficiency and longevity. Compare the incentives which drive our oil and gas production curves—they should all apply to uranium too.

In summary, I believe there is significant growth potential in a nuclear+renewable combination. Current EROI measures have large error bars and depend on assumptions about technology and society which may or may not hold. Each of these factors helps to mitigate the effect on civilization.