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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   38438 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of March 27, 2023

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Well, not just really good computational biochemistry skills? Wouldn't it also need a revolution in synbio to access an API where it input molecules and they were then produced? Where would that get sent? How do you convince people to inhale it?

Aside: I expect this synbio revolution would usher in an era of corresponding print-at-home immunity, reducing the threat vector from bespoke bioweapons. I don't expect all x-risk from weapons defense to be this symmetrical, shooting down an ICBM is much much harder than launching one for example. I would like to be as concrete as possible about the risks though.

Wouldn't it also need a revolution in synbio to access an API where it input molecules and they were then produced? Where would that get sent?

Right here. You literally just type in the DNA sequence. Of course, that's assuming there are no biotech labs that have hooked up the AI directly to the protein synthesis machines to streamline development.

How do you convince people to inhale it?

"Introducing Project Telos, a groundbreaking first-line clinical trial harnessing the power of a retrovirus to deliver telomere-repair enzymes into somatic cells. Join us in revolutionizing healthcare and longevity by combating age-related diseases, enhancing tissue repair, and promoting overall well-being. As a participant, you'll play a crucial role in shaping the future of regenerative medicine, while gaining exclusive access to potential health benefits. Be a part of history and help unlock the potential for a healthier, longer life."

And yes, GPT-4 wrote that.

Welcome to the future.

Let me see if I understand the threat model.

  1. Unaligned AGI decides humans are a problem, engineers virus more infectious than measles with very long asymptomatic incubation period and 100% lethality.

  2. Virus is submitted to idtdna.com with stolen payment info that the AGI hacked from elsewhere.

  3. Idtdna.com processes the request, builds the supervirus, and ships it somewhere.

  4. ????

  5. Everyone dies.

I assume you'll have a clever solution for 4.

Why do you assume the lab would synthesize any arbitrary protein? Surely they would want some confidence they're not building a dangerous supervirus?

Or are we assuming the evil AGI can submit a convincing doc with it that says it's totally benign?

It might be difficult to find an individual lab to synthesize the whole virus from scratch. You could do it by coming up with a 2-component capsid which spontaneously assembles in aqueous solution at a particular pH, getting two individual shipments of the two capsid proteins, getting a third shipment containing the viral genome, then mixing them together and adjusting the pH.* You could bribe, brainwash, or trick an undergrad to do this part.

Why do you assume the lab would synthesize any arbitrary protein? Surely they would want some confidence they're not building a dangerous supervirus?

Sequences are blacklisted, not whitelisted. The whole point of research is that you don't know exactly what the proteins are going to do yet. It would not be hard for the AI to come up with sequences that look benign at first glance. If need-be, yes, a convincing doc could be submitted. GPT-4 could probably do that part today.

I assume you'll have a clever solution for 4.

I admit I'm a bit confused here. Do you need an explanation for how we get from "supervirus in a tube" to "everyone dies"? Imagine Covid but with a 3-month incubation period and a 100% fatality rate. Convince an undergrad to pour it over his face or something. Tell him its the Fountain of Youth.

"Super-smallpox" is a metaphor. There's no reason an engineered pathogen needs to bear an apparent similarity to any known pathogen.

An AI that's solved protein-folding can make its own custom restriction enzymes and ligases with different nucleotide substrates than are currently known (good luck predicting the substrate from the amino acid sequence without the AI's help). The final DNA sequence need not be obvious from the fragments sent to the lab for first synthesis.

Maybe the virus looks like it isn't replication-competent? Maybe they even run tests on an immortal cell-line in a petri dish. Perfectly safe right? Uh-oh, turns out it was specifically designed to not replicate in the exact cell-line used for testing. Whoops.

This is what Eliezer means by "security mindset". The above safeguards are the equivalent of computer security via increasingly large passwords. It is predictable that they will fail, even if you can't see the exact failure scenario.

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