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I feel like the poker analogy is working against you here. Try asking around a table how people would feel open jamming TT with half their life savings and years of their life on the line, whilst only getting to play 3-4 sessions (in this case, marriages prospects).
It's a numbers game. No one wants to cash at a specific tournament, or win a specific cash game. They want to come out ahead over all tournaments and games they play. You put your money in good spots and let the law of large numbers take care of the rest. And there'll will always be those unfavored by Fortuna (or Lady Variance, if you prefer), getting it in with AA vs KKs 8 times and losing every time.
If anything, I'd say slot machines are a more apt allegory, a game rigged against you unless you understand their inner workings.
In the poker metaphor I was thinking tournament style poker night, where it's position rather than chips that matter at the end of the night (how we typically played). Because really, if you want to be a man with a trad family, commitment is the only game in town. There is no moneyball solution, you're gonna have to bet big on somebody, at some point.
I mean we can torture it to death and say maybe it's more like MtG because you get to set your deck up even if luck of the draw comes into it.
But at the end of the day, the survival of a nation requires a huge number of men to take what can be a sucker bet. Marriage is one, it might be a foolish bet but if nobody takes it there are no functional children and the country dies. Joining the military is another; you might get hit by artillery fire before you ever even see the enemy up close, but if nobody is willing to take that chance the country dies.
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