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The ways this can go wrong are numerous, not the least of which is her refusing to perform any cooperation in the relationship and divorcing him to take the kids and money anyway.
The bet is not just about the upside. A guy lowers his standards and accepts a less happy relationship and STILL doesn't get to count on loyalty, cooperation, and stability since the current rules say "she can leave whenever she wants."
So we're in a situation where the guy's risk/reward calculation is impacted by the fact that
A) There are fewer women who want to settle down, and
B) There are fewer women who are worth risking a long-term commitment with, and all the guys are fighting for them anyway.
Yes, because there are obvious reasons why those categories increase the risk associated with giving commitment. Obesity leads to health issues and possible complications in pregnancy. That's a financial, emotional, and eventually health risk. Various mood and psych disorders contribute to marital dysfunction, and likewise increase chances of divorce. If she's a single mother you're going to expend resources raising a kid that isn't yours, with no guarantees that you'll get to have one of your own. AND she's already demonstrated a certain amount of poor judgment if she picked a guy who wouldn't commit and had his kid.
So a guy can choose to widen his criteria and accept a woman that has certain, I'll use the term 'baggage,' and if it ends up not working out for him, what is he left with? How much risk is it reasonable for him to accept in exchange for possible upside?
"Marriagable" women imply that the risk/reward calculation goes in her favor. There's not going to be as many as factors like this become more prevalent.
So why is the marriage rate so low now?
https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/republicans/2020/4/marriage-rate-blog-test
Why are fewer people getting married at all, much less "happily" married?
I realize at some point this is a question of probabilities but it seems to me all the downsides you list about non-"marriagable" women also apply to "marrigable" women. They can tick off all your boxes and still "divorc[e] him to take the kids and money." Or still be lacking in "loyalty, cooperation, and stability." Even "marriagable" women can "leave whenever she wants."
I'm very confident that women also believe they have compelling reasons for having the standards they do.
If a guy marries a woman without any 'baggage' and it ends up not working out for him, what is he left with? I don't see how the woman's prior "marrigability" is relevant to this question.
It is up to each of us to decide that for ourselves. On the one hand, if one takes too much risk one may find oneself in a bad relationship. On the other hand, if one is too risk averse they may be without any relationship at all.
This depends entirely on the particular individuals weight of the factors in question.
Because increased social, legal, and economic equality mean women are less and less dependent on marriage as an institution to provide for themselves. When you drastically improve people's alternative to X (as has happened for women over the last century with respect to marriage) then fewer of them will choose X.
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