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Stipulating that they’re not just made up or otherwise fraudulent, these companies just don’t understand what reasonable empirical standards are for making causal claims using observational data. There exist rigorous methodologies for bridging the gap from correlation to causation in these settings but it can be tricky and subtle and McKinsey has no incentives to put in the effort nor do the consumers of these studies.
I know this because I’m an academic in a field with high empirical standards and I run across this McKinsey style of study in my domain from time to time and they’re just useless. Like the standards are so low it’s not even worth debunking. Down-thread substantive arguments about this are honestly kind of a waste of time; you wouldn’t spend time listing the reasons that a kid’s make believe is unrealistic or that some Aella poll is pointless. Consulting company studies, and I am really not exaggerating, carry the same epistemological weight. They just aren’t a valid way to learn about the world.
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