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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   32966 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of February 13, 2023

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Those sound like the sorts of things that would increase mortality from the baseline? Anyways I'm not particularly fixated on Hungary; the fact that there are such large differences at the moment (and that many places are quite elevated) is profoundly weird.

"The monthly excess mortality indicator is expressed as the percentage rate of additional deaths in a month, compared to a baseline period. The baseline is given by average monthly deaths in the period 2016-2019."

This is a very crude methodology compared to the Euromomo approach.

Well you click on "methods" at the link above, but I'll link it for you:

https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/methods/

If I'm reading that correctly, all baselines for Euromomo are from pre-2009 data

It says "The data after week 2009-34", so I'm not sure where you're getting that.

If you want to argue methodology with a bunch of epidemiology PhDs then go ahead, but they seem very legit to me. (the ECDC and WHO agree, for what that's worth)

I feel like that's just a description that hasn't been updated since they introduced their monitoring (in response to H1N1) -- do you really think that they are modelling their baseline based on twenty year old data?

That text seems to have been copy-pasted from their initial paper here: https://www.euromomo.eu/uploads/pdf/wp7_report.pdf

In 2009 it would have made sense to exclude data from the then-current infection event from their baseline -- I'm fairly sure that they would be using a rolling five year period as time moved forward.

Do you really think that this group who's sole purpose for the past 15 years is modelling european mortality rates is composed of a bunch of retards?

Re: Eurostat -- "The monthly excess mortality indicator is expressed as the percentage rate of additional deaths in a month, compared to a baseline period. The baseline is given by average monthly deaths in the period 2016-2019. -- they are just taking the total deaths between 2016 and eoy 2019 and dividing by 48, this is a terrible baseline for something which such a clear seasonal trend.

Edit:

A more recent paper from Euromomo (https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.8.2001646) indicates (in the "modelling" section) that they are using the five years preceeding their study period for a baseline.

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