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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   29600 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of February 6, 2023

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That says "water hammer", not "natural gas hammer". It has nothing to do with "volatility" and everything to do with incompressibility which gasses lack. The increase in pressure caused by instantaneously stopping the average flow of the pipeline is well under one percent.

The term "natural gas" as it's used in this context is just another name for methane and is not indicative of phase state. Despite the name, the fluid that flows through a natural gas pipeline is a liquid not a gas, and as a liquid is incompressible (or more accurately comes pre-compressed) wich is why the formation of methane hydrate and other condensates on the interior walls of the pipeline are something that has to be actively monitored and guarded against.

Occams razor holds that the theory requiring the fewest assumptions/steps is the most likely. Accordingly, which of these scenarios sounds more plausible given what we know? Some whacky Tom Clancy-esque scheme involving hundreds of people across half a dozen countries was executed successfully and in complete secrecy outside Hersh's unnamed source? or Russian industrial safety standards being a bit shit?

Butane and propane liquify just fine at room temperature, but methane does not. Methane has to be below -80C in order to form a liquid, and therefore cannot be transported through a pipeline as a liquid. Liquids can end up in the pipelines anyway, but that is not the same thing and requires an additional detail to be specified -- something that cuts against your Occam's razor argument.

Whether you think it's a priory super unlikely that a military would ever attempt a clandestine operation and only kinda get caught is really beside my point.

Butane and propane liquify just fine at room temperature, but methane does not.

You're neglecting pressure, critical pressure for Methane is around 50 bar as I recall which means it will be either be a liquid or a super critical fluid depending on where exactly we are at on phase chart.

No HylnaCG, I am not. It boggles my mind that you'd double down with such confident counter assertions without checking if you understand what is being said or whether you have your facts straight. Google "critical temperature" and "critical temperature methane", then reread my comment. Then maybe google "supercritical fluid compressibility".

No HylnaCG, I am not.

Yes you are, material phase has two components, temperature and pressure. This is what allows you to boil water with little more than your own body-heat by stepping into a hypobaric chamber. The whole point of a critical point is that it is a discontinuity in the phase diagram, the pressure at which the medium in question starts to behave less like a compressible gas and more like an liquid (or solid) regardless of temperature.

Despite the name, the fluid that flows through a natural gas pipeline is a liquid not a gas, and as a liquid is incompressible (or more accurately comes pre-compressed)

No, any methane in a normal natural gas pipeline is not liquid and will never be a liquid. The critical temperature of methane is -82 C and actual liquid natural gas as made is much colder. It takes special built terminals and a ton of refrigeration and a ton of very expensive insulation. Any methane in a transmission pipeline is either gas or supercritical

Some whacky Tom Clancy-esque scheme involving hundreds of people across half a dozen countries was executed successfully and in complete secrecy outside Hersh's unnamed source? or Russian industrial safety standards being a bit shit?

Iran-Contra? Manhattan Project? US bombing Cambodia? I mean I generally agree with you that complicated conspiracies' are hard to keep secret. But at least you have to admit that maybe your perception is flawed as you have no idea what the success rate is by definition, as they remain a secret and you only hear about the ones that are revealed.

No, any methane in a normal natural gas pipeline is not liquid and will never be a liquid. The critical temperature of methane is -82 C and actual liquid natural gas as made is much colder. It takes special built terminals and a ton of refrigeration and a ton of very expensive insulation. Any methane in a transmission pipeline is either gas or supercritical

Supercritical in this case -- the series of engineering case studies of NS 1 linked by @sansampersamp above are frikkin fascinating:

Transportation of Natural Gas in Dense Phase – Nord Stream 1

Part 2: Nord Stream Pipelines – Multiple Parallel Paths to Success or Failure?

Nord Stream Long Distance Gas Pipeline – Part 3 Application of Basic and AGA equations for estimating maximum gas flow in a long‐distance pipeline

It's quite a thing actually -- they are (were) pumping the gas with no booster stations, compressing it to 3190 psi (using a mere half-million horsepower) and having it arrive in Germany still at 1500 psi, enough to distribute it a little ways from the pipeline terminus.

AIUI hydrates are less likely to form in dense phase natural gas, which is one of the advantages of this kind of pipeline -- is that right?

AIUI hydrates are less likely to form in dense phase natural gas, which is one of the advantages of this kind of pipeline -- is that right?

No, that would seem to be a disadvantage of a high pressure pipeline based on the methane hydrate phase diagram you linked, looking at the chart as pressure goes up so does methane hydrate formation.

Supercritical methane: above -82 C and 46 bar

NS1/2 Operating from your first link: 2 to 6 C and 220 to 106 bar

Methane hydrate from the phase diagram you linked elsewhere in the thread: NS1/2 is pretty much exclusively operating in the methane hydrate range, at 2 - 6 C it looks like you need to be under maybe 20 bar to be out of the methane hydrate zone.

So if NS 1 has been operating in the methane hydrate zone for 20+ years why has it not had any issues until now? Well if no water is in the gas stream then no methane hydrate can form. And going off of steam tables and partial pressures at the injection state of 220 bar and 6 C the water content is 43 ppm, which does not leave much water at all for methane hydrate formation. Even less if they stuck the gas stream through a final dehydration step.

Given the above I really question the methane hydrate theory, especially in NS2. I could see at least being possible over time in NS1 as a build up they ignored. But still very doubtful, you'd have to assume that the Russians and Germans both ignored it. For NS2 which hasn't ever been sending gas through, any methane hydrate would be forming out of at most 43 ppm of water that was originally in the pipe when pressurized. Which is a very small amount of methane hydrate.

Above is also assuming that the Russians were not adding any kind of methane hydrate inhibitor to their gas. Or doing any further dehydration after compressing and cooling. Either way the gas is very dry to begin with, so there is not much water to form into methane hydrate, so there won't be much methane hydrate.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Methane_Hydrate_phase_diagram.jpg

https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/methane-d_1420.html

https://www.thermopedia.com/content/1150/

Whats the argument multiple pipes blew up at the same time from this? The occams razor bit would seem to fail when three pipes are blowing up at the same time and the same place.

Also the people keeping it secret are guys who specifically trained to keep it secret and no doubt relish getting security clearances.

They didn't blow up at the same time though, see my original comment.

Likewise, when you're actually in that sort of the the first thing you learn is that every "jump" a secret has to make is an opportunity for it to be exposed, the more people who know, the more organizations in the loop the less of a secret it becomes, which is exactly my prior on a scheme involving hundreds of people across half a dozen different countries being executed successfully without being immediately exposed is pretty close to zero.

I thought they blew up quicker and not 18 hrs. Still weird three same day from real issues.

While I can't rule out divers, my suspicion is that whether through incompetance or intentional sabotage someone created a condition that was likely to result in a catastrophic failure if not corrected and then that condition was not corrected.

Look up the compressibility of methane hydrate.

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