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The point is that this doesn't matter. Sure, assume it's true. When you use that truth to set a target ("We want more AP students"), you lose ceteris paribis; all else is no longer equal, there's a new incentive structure in place.
Remember, these are social "rule of thumb" "laws" we're talking about here, not natural laws of physics. Maybe this is some weird situation where there was the pedagogical equivalent of the $100 bill lying on the ground, and everyone manages to dodge all of the obvious and unobvious ways the attempts to reach the target could backfire or go wrong.
My contention is just that it's still the kind of situation that Goodhart was warning about.
I don't know what you mean by "When you use that truth to set a target." What truth?
Anyhow, more AP students is not the target. The target is better success in college. And the fact that there might be "obvious and unobvious ways the attempts to reach the target could backfire or go wrong" is true of every human endeavor.
Anyhow, your basic claim is that getting students to do more rigorous work in HS will not better prepare them for the more rigorous work that will be expected of them in college. It seems to me that you have a pretty high burden of proof on such a counter-intuitive claim.
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