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The specific claim was "controlling for test results", which I would argue is a poor proxy for "controlling for student quality". "People who take AP classes" is still a heavily selected subset of "high school students". Even the ones who bombed the test still had teachers and counselors thinking they were a good fit for the class in the first place. Going back to the diploma example, schools didn't just start off by giving out free high school diplomas. What they did was lower standards incrementally until we get the situation with grade inflation. Which feeds into why I think "slapping an AP label on an existing class" is exactly what we will see moving forward. That AP label is worth an extra 1.0 on a GPA, which will help students when applying to college, which makes the school look better. And even if every kid in that
honorsAP class bombs the test, well, bombed tests don't count against you, and the College Board themselves said that taking the class at all helps with college success! It's not like adding the AP class in AAS is going to add time to the school day; every kid taking that class is taking it instead of some other class. If that class isn't something like another AP history class, then you're going to be pulling from the kids who were specifically taking honors classes instead of AP classes.And in theory, making every kid finish HS will increase literacy and general education. In the real world, "increasing literacy and general education" is actually very hard (especially when educators are hobbled with ideological bullshit), and gaming the system and targeted statistics is much more achievable.
I think you are assuming that it is the only control they used. Look, I haven't read the studies upon which they are relying. And note my original post expressed quite a bit of skepticism about the general claim; it might indeed be incorrect! But that is a different issue.
That was actually a problem in the past, which is why about 15 years ago the College Board instituted the AP Course Audit. If for no other reason than that they have to protect their brand, and because universities were talking about ending the practice of recognizing a GPA boost for ostensible AP classes unless the College Board took action.
I'm not so sure, since "improve" is a low bar. Regardless we are talking about a much more narrow set of questions: Does an AP Chem course better prepare students for college than a regular Chem course? What about an AP World History course, versus a regular WH course? Etc, etc.
The point is that this doesn't matter. Sure, assume it's true. When you use that truth to set a target ("We want more AP students"), you lose ceteris paribis; all else is no longer equal, there's a new incentive structure in place.
Remember, these are social "rule of thumb" "laws" we're talking about here, not natural laws of physics. Maybe this is some weird situation where there was the pedagogical equivalent of the $100 bill lying on the ground, and everyone manages to dodge all of the obvious and unobvious ways the attempts to reach the target could backfire or go wrong.
My contention is just that it's still the kind of situation that Goodhart was warning about.
I don't know what you mean by "When you use that truth to set a target." What truth?
Anyhow, more AP students is not the target. The target is better success in college. And the fact that there might be "obvious and unobvious ways the attempts to reach the target could backfire or go wrong" is true of every human endeavor.
Anyhow, your basic claim is that getting students to do more rigorous work in HS will not better prepare them for the more rigorous work that will be expected of them in college. It seems to me that you have a pretty high burden of proof on such a counter-intuitive claim.
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