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I have no proof for this, and believe that it is fundamentally un-provable, but I believe that for whatever reason, Western Europe has developed a culture that is the most highly optimized in existence for embracing and taking full advantage of a long series of compounding technological advancements. I don't have a full list of exactly what this entails, but I believe it includes:
Belief in individual liberty - others can do as they please as long as it doesn't harm you
Low role of honor/shame/guilt - if you screw up, you can fix it, try again, start over with something new, etc
Low dedication to any particular elite - anyone who comes up with a new idea good enough to put them on top can go ahead and take that slot
Openness to criticizing yourself and your culture and embracing new ways of doing things
Obviously not every single individual member of this overall culture believes all of these about everything all the time, but I think it's still essentially the dominant core values of the culture. Other cultures succeed or fail in the modern world to the extent that they embrace these values.
Many other cultures have attempted to catch up by embracing the current top level of technology, but if they don't adopt all of the values along with it, they will eventually fall behind when the next advancement comes along. I think of Japan and China, which have at various stages done a pretty good job of adopting the current top level of technological advancement, but seem to inevitably fall behind when the top level moves ahead. Russia could probably be described about the same.
How many of those traits were incorporated back in 1400?
The Spanish and Portuguese colonizations happened before the Enlightenment, before the Reformation. Catholicism was the only game in town. Monarchies were not particularly limited by a sense of forgiveness or openness-to-criticism. Neither were the Greek and Roman influences which shaped the Renaissance.
I don’t think you’re wrong that liberal, secular humanist cultures have an advantage…I just don’t think it’s been around long enough to explain European success.
I couldn't say about 1400 specifically. I'd say I basically think that many aspects of these traits were at least present in sort of a prototype form at least as far back as that. As in, not necessarily openly embraced by the notional leaders of nations, but often present in the mid to upper layers of the societal elite. Stuff like the Enlightenment and Reformation didn't magically appear out of nowhere. I'd note that Columbus was able to secure funding for his voyage despite being completely wrong in his calculations about the size of the Earth. Did anything like that happen in China? I expect they had the resources to do such things, but if they have, I've never heard of it.
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