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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-35653-z
Here's one estimate. I would never base policy on one study, usually that's something the CDC would do.
This is data from a year ago. We are talking about how the bivalent booster is associated with ischemic strokes, especially held against the risk of omicron.
Let's stick to relative risk? This is not useful.
Agreed. But we have to go places, like schools, small business, and our places of worship. So no one proposes stopping driving. I'm proposing stopping the EUA novel biotechnology vaccination campaign.
Which it is not by the very report you are using. You've jumped from "The CDC reported a signal which they investigated and found nothing" to "The vaccine is associated with strokes" as though that were proven and established.
Why not go the whole hog and say the vaccine causes women to ride broomsticks to the meeting with the Devil? You are determined the vaccine is bad and then go looking for straws to build your house with, instead of looking at established risks and then forming an opinion.
Definite side-effects of getting the vaccine that have been established: muscle pains, fever, diarrhoea, mild allergic reaction.
Possibility of more serious side-effects: anaphylactic reaction
If you want to argue that the risk for young men is too high as compared to the risk of contracting Covid and the effects of that illness, you have a valid case there. You do not have one for general scare-mongering.
Fair, I'm not going to rip off my wallpaper over elderly and at risk people receiving bivalent vaccines - precisely because I have a calculation of their quality life years remaining, that is very different from younger healthy people.
The exact people who benefit from a covid vaccine have less quality life years to live than those who do not.
The vaccine has a novel, not totally understood method of mRNA translation, and then goes through another not completely understood process of protein folding, and then enters the immune system (not completely understood). The pharmacokinetics of the nano lipid particle are not characterized or understood. And there is a concerning signal of a blood clot appearing in patient's brains.
I am not scare mongering, I am being highly critical, since I'm not the one defending the novel RNA transfection vaccines.
When they run trials for new vaccines, they will compare them to the harms that the RNA transfection vaccines caused, and the new vaccines are going to look amazing. My guess is they will use protein-adjuvanted methods.
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I didn't ask for an estimate, I asked why 1 per 1 million is the higher tolerable level of risk.
Why does it being a year old matter? Even if the IFR is a few times lower, it's still much, much, much higher than what you're talking about.
Do you plan on explaining why or are you just going to make assertions?
It's entirely possible to build towns and cities that don't require you to drive literally everywhere, but no one seems to care about the risk from driving when designing cities or choosing where to live. At least, not at the magnitude you're talking about: 100 miles could be saved in 2 months by moving 1 mile closer to work, but does anyone care about that? Not in the slightest. A minuscule improvement in civil design would save orders of magnitude more lives than eliminating all risk from vaccines, with lots of other positive side effects to boot.
This entire post of yours is just one big isolated demand for rigor.
1 in one million, compared to 1 in 100,000, in our current data collection environment, is a good signal to keep track of if you are considering your options to receive a covid-19 vaccine. Perhaps you can take J&J, Novavax, or Covaxin and maintain protection against SARS-2.
The IFR is lower and vaccines are not denting hospitalization or death rates as they plummet from their previous heights (mass naïve infection). Most people have had a much better inoculation than a monovalent vaccine - they've had a SARS-2 infection.
Well, because a stroke as a cardiovascular event, I'm interested in the dynamic between mRNA vaccination and your cardiovascular system. A stroke, downstream of pathology, will offer valuable information when it goes above the baseline.
Well, you are demanding rigor, and yet I feel like this is a complex claim. Even a city would involve having people driving to bring supplies and transportation towards these centers - a mandatory risk.
We should be paving our public serology with only the best, most well understood vaccines that we are capable of developing and testing and passing on in our limited lifetimes. There is a broader umbrella of rigor that I am requesting to be frank.
A lot of the rigor I'm demanding will also take time, more time than has been allotted for these Bivalent updates. The first injectable, multi-transcriptional (unknown if combined or separated) mRNA vaccine to market has shown an unexpected safety signal.
...why? What makes it a good signal? Again, compared to the baseline number of strokes, you probably would not ever be able to detect these increases. If you wouldn't seriously consider the risk of driving 1000 miles, why would you seriously consider this risk?
Do you have some data for these claims? I've seen them, but I've also seen the opposite (e.g. that vaccine provides a better immune response than previous infection). Case and hospitalization rates are certainly nowhere near their high of a year ago (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) but if the virus is mutating to become more contagious and less severe over time, and vaccines aren't actually effective, you should still see a high case count.
What valuable information? How does this answer my question?
I'm not really sure what you are trying to say. There are plenty of alternatives to using large motor vehicles in city centers, near pedestrians. Also, deliveries of goods represent a tiny fraction of all trips taken in populated areas, so you can still have those while reducing personal car trips. Urban design is a complex topic, but so is medicine. Do you want me to recommend you some urbanist sources?
This seems like a much weaker conclusion than:
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