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History Classes Are Mostly Useless

parrhesia.substack.com

SS: Americans are rather ignorant about history. Moral reasoning by historical analogy is bad. Historical examples can be misleading for making predictions. These facts suggest that the utility of history courses is overestimated. In fact, they are mostly useless.

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These classes impress upon children the idealistic, shallow notion that individuals - not geopolitical trends and perpetual power imbalances - are responsible for shaping the course of history.

While trends are notable, ignoring the role of individuals is idiocy. Do you, for instance, think that if Donald Trump did not exist, the recent flow of US history would have unfolded identically with another in his place? Do you think that had Vasily Arhkipov consented to launching a nuclear torpedo at a US warship, the Long Peace would still have held?

Or, going forward, do you really think that an invasion of Taiwan and probable Third World War would happen if Xi Jinping were to simply say "no" at any point?