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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   32256 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of January 2, 2023

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I don't know who Tony Bobulinski is and how trustable he is. The fact that Tucker quotes him doesn't add anything. It is just mostly gossip which may be correct or may not. It doesn't update my priors much.

Maybe I am going the way that Taleb calls via negativa. I am careful and exclude things I don't have enough positive information about. That eliminates most of disaster modes (of course, it also makes me to lose some potentially great deals too).

so what are you asking for? direct proof looks like a former business associate explicitly claiming who "the big guy" was in the email chains

tucker is irrelevant to that; basic research would reveal who the source is and a guess about their reliability

your position appears to be essentially you don't know, you've done basically zero research about this topic (and aren't willing to), tucker talking about it triggers your bias and creates a perception there is something unreliable about the source, and your bias about son behavior generally points to it being wrong therefore you have a very high bar for believing it to be true?

is that right?

Exactly.

Why should I even care about this issue? I was just trying to convey how much would I trust this information based on my priors. I don't think I am biased exactly because I don't care about it. However, this is more interesting that Tucker doesn't move my priors.

If I read something on wikipedia that would move my priors.

Fair enough. What is the difference between "my priors" and "my bias"?

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