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Notes -
The best natural experiment we've gotten recently was the PA statewide elections back in November. In the summer polling, Shapiro and Fetterman both had double digit leads. Shapiro and Mastriano had no debate, Oz and Fetterman had one.
On here and elsewhere I was a constant anti-Oz bigot, I campaigned and voted against him twice. I can admit that was the biggest debate blowout anyone has ever seen in real life. It was like something out of Veep. Fetterman looked totally incapable of achieving anything, or even understanding anything.
Immediately after the debate polls narrowed.
Ultimately Fetterman won a narrow but clear victory, while Shapiro delivered the kind of posterizing dunk that has state republicans terrified for the future. So take into account the differences between the races, that's the max impact a debate can have on a race. Most debates will have less impact because both sides will at least seem, you know, coherent and intelligent. Compare the results for Oz to the results for Shapiro, who has no debate, and to other similarly situated Senate candidates and you have your number.
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