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That's the thing, there are no other export markets that will replace lost exports to the US.
I have. I've also noticed that it's been reported that China is also threatening countries that are going to cut a deal with the US, and furthermore that they are obstructing Apple's attempt to relocate equipment to India. In other words, China is not only doing all the bad things you are saying Trump is doing (threatening countries with tariffs if they trade with the US instead of China) they are also disincentivizing further investment in the Chinese economy through abusive government practices.
It's possible that what you describe will happen. But it is also possible that it is China that will become isolated.
No country in the world really wants to be dependent on Chinese manufacturing. Not even Russia. Joining the US side might be a good opportunity, especially for countries like Mexico, Argentina and Vietnam, to onshore their own manufacturing as alternatives to Chinese labor for the American consumer. This would both increase their trade with the United States and decrease their own dependence on Chinese labor.
At least, that makes sense to me. I don't pretend to have a very firm grasp on the nuances of the global economy. But I don't think that means I have dementia.
We are totally dependent on global trade. That is a good thing, makes us all better off. People who worry about that don't understand this point and also don't have an alternative except start producing everything locally, which means that we become poor again.
The world is worried about China exerting its military power, therefore China needs to be restricted somehow. The good idea would be to make a block against China, remove any tariffs between countries except China and put sanctions and tariffs on China.
But punishing countries for trading with the US makes no sense. It strengthens China's position. Trump's policy was so absurd that currently many countries have already given up and believe that this will be China's century. We hope the US will change its mind but we never know.
The United States is not, no.
Not necessarily true - in this system there are losers as well as winners, at least proportionately.
There's definitely alternatives between "get critical industrial supplies from China" and "complete autarchy." The best position for any country, of course, is limited autarchy - being self sufficient on
You can offshore some of this to trusted allies, or try to compensate for it in other ways, but producing the above locally (which the United States does not do) is a desirable goal for any country.
I also think that a lot of your statements rely on a perfectly efficient and frictionless market. The market is not perfectly efficient, and it is definitely not frictionless. The United States, in particular, has a lot of what might be described as barriers to internal trade - some of them quite severe. It's quite possible (and I listened to some economic-types who are probably smarter than me suggest this, so it's not something I just made up) that even with tariffs, the US grows wealthier by cutting down these internal regulations.
Yes - this is the sort of move I have been discussing.
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