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I dunno. I would have a stronger opinion of this if I considered myself more economically literate. But the basic strategy that seems to be shaping up, as reported, of essentially forcing countries to choose between the US and China does make sense. We'll see if he's able to pull it off.
I don't really think that's true. Keep in mind that the press has sat on really big stories in the past at the request of the executive branch. If (as has been rumored) China was planning to attack Taiwan - and this precipitated some frantic economic maneuvers - I could definitely see "us" being unaware of the story. I don't hold that theory strongly but it's been in the back of my mind.
Why would you use this as an example? (This keeps happening, to me, I swear!)
Almost certainly, Havana Syndrome is real and is being covered up by the US government to smooth over relations with foreign powers and/or conceal the fact that we have and use the same technology. We know how it works (it's a directed energy weapon). It's possible that the symptoms are not even being induced as an anti-personnel attack, but rather an electromagnetic spectrum attack that targets data. President Bush and his family were plausibly affected by this at a summit in Germany (and he wrote about it in his memoir). The Russians have even been reported to have alluded to these types of weapons publicly. There are other incidents, too (such as then-Vice President Richard Nixon being bombarded by extremely high doses of radiation - probably not due to any attempt to harm him, but rather due to a wiretapping attempt) showing that certain foreign powers are willing to irradiate high-ranking US personnel in potentially dangerous ways as part of their espionage programs.
This stuff is all public knowledge and findable on a Google. That doesn't mean that every reported case of Havana syndrome is legit, but there's absolutely zero reason to believe that it's somehow impossible and very good reasons to think it is real.
And rightfully so, if your idea is true.
Yes, it forces other countries to choose China instead of the US. How does it make sense?
If you go to countries and say "we are going to slap you with a massive tariff if you choose China, or a teensy-tiny one if you choose us" it...makes total sense? The US is the largest consumer market in the world – if you are forced to choose between China and the US, all other things being equal, you pick the US every time.
Now, obviously, there's room for Trump to bungle the execution (by making all other things not be equal). But the plan is not crazy.
It doesn't.
Any tariff increase is an incentive to sell more to China and/or other countries and not to the US.
Because tariff towards said country is meant to reduce imports from said country. It is not meant to increase trade with the US.
Basically, Trump is bullying countries. He is saying, I am going to punish you for no reason, but I will punish you less if you do this another nonsensical thing for me about which I will change my mind two days later.
Now all countries need to find other export markets to replace lost exports to the US. The US role in going to diminish, China is going to become stronger which is a threat to the world stability and peace.
How can anyone find sense seeing Trump doing this?
P.S. Notice that China has increased tarifs towards the US as well. Which means that Chinese people will buy less from the US. All the other countries have a perfect opportunity to reroute lost exports to China instead. The US imports will decrease, but its exports will also decrease. The US will become isolated.
That's the thing, there are no other export markets that will replace lost exports to the US.
I have. I've also noticed that it's been reported that China is also threatening countries that are going to cut a deal with the US, and furthermore that they are obstructing Apple's attempt to relocate equipment to India. In other words, China is not only doing all the bad things you are saying Trump is doing (threatening countries with tariffs if they trade with the US instead of China) they are also disincentivizing further investment in the Chinese economy through abusive government practices.
It's possible that what you describe will happen. But it is also possible that it is China that will become isolated.
No country in the world really wants to be dependent on Chinese manufacturing. Not even Russia. Joining the US side might be a good opportunity, especially for countries like Mexico, Argentina and Vietnam, to onshore their own manufacturing as alternatives to Chinese labor for the American consumer. This would both increase their trade with the United States and decrease their own dependence on Chinese labor.
At least, that makes sense to me. I don't pretend to have a very firm grasp on the nuances of the global economy. But I don't think that means I have dementia.
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