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Notes -
I do note that Syrsky interview isn't dated in your screenshot, but is shortly after his appointment so presumably over a year ago now? Plus, not sure on your economist article, but they have changed their tune more recently: https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/12/02/how-ukraine-uses-cheap-ai-guided-drones-to-deadly-effect-against-russia and I think most estimates don't put Ukraine behind on drone integration.
The balance since then has shifted sharply, and not in Russia's favor https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2025/04/07/rheinmetall-secures-nitrocellulose-supply-amid-european-ammo-scramble/ (edited to a better link), plus systems like Excalibur and the GMLRS/ATACMS really don't have any qualitative peer in the Russian artillery arsenal (hence why they had to pause and restructure their logistics around them) - I just don't think either of those sources come close to suggesting Russia has and had always a qualitative and quantitative edge that comes close to evening its casualty disadvantage as an attacker. It's also possible that Syrsky was being a slight doomer then to highlight the need for ongoing aid in early 2024...
On the credibility of Russia's claims, they also demand many other things do they not? Some of which include the end to sanctions, rolling back NATO's deployments, the right to veto legislation in Ukraine and more, all of which are still in effect as of their last announcements unless something has really changed behind the scenes (Dmitri suggests not: https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/67fb81259a794798c0cc6be5 *(edited to avoid screwing up the link))? That seems highly non credible, and well well beyond what you say, which would themselves require Russia to achieve a breakthrough it has not managed since Spring 2022. For example, taking two oblast capitals, one of which was never theirs and the other behind a now fortified huge river, that they themselves flooded. That is what I mean by non credible.
I don't think this is true. Russia has their own guided arty shell (Krasnopol) and systems such as Iskander that are comparable (or in the Iskander's case, superior in range) to ATACMS.
I'm not necessarily claiming that they are quite as good as their US counterparts (although – Iskander is probably superior to ATACMS, just due to range), but the idea that Russia doesn't have their own guided artillery is just wrong.
What Russia doesn't have is the (not-technically-part-of-the-war) US ISR apparatus that enabled the Ukrainians to utilize their guided weapons so effectively.
The CEP and kill chain are very different for the systems, and like you say that's also due to the full GPS/ISTAR package around the systems. I really do think that Ukraine had a clear advantage in precision fires from 2023 at least. But it's a bit of a niche point.
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"2027 (geplant) Produktionskapazitäten" is pulling a lot of weight in that chart.
Also that image is going to die when the /k/ shilling thread does, you may want to archive
*2027 I assume? But you're right, how about this one: https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2025/04/07/rheinmetall-secures-nitrocellulose-supply-amid-european-ammo-scramble/
I'm a bit annoyed at the Germans and their pace, but Russia's low GDP and sanctions are not great for a war of attrition, and they really have burnt through most of their stored equipment in many categories.
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