This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
This is a very light conviction, as I’m not technically minded enough to understand the deeper mechanics of AI.
That said, it feels like we’re at the peak of inflated expectations on the Gartner hype cycle. This is entirely based on vibes, bro — I have no solid argument beyond having worked in finance and becoming interested in bubbles, and thinking “I’ve seen this before.” It’s a weak case.
I've already seen predictions falling substantially short of the mark.
I do think AI will be disruptive and world-changing. But I don’t find the “superhuman” predictions particularly convincing — or many of the other wilder forecasts. The robotics applications, though, seem possible and genuinely exciting.
If anyone has a solid counter to this lazy argument, I’d be keen to hear it.
IDK I don't really have a solid counter, I guess I just have different vibes.
If AI can be superhuman at Chess, Go, Starcraft, why not coding too? Or any other task? The former tasks are simple and gamified in certain ways that don't match up with the complexity of reality... But when managing the most complex aspects of reality we also turn to AI. Who manages containment of plasma in a fusion chamber? AI. Who predicts the weather? AI. Who makes lots of money in stocks? AI.
Now there are bots that can perform just about any human-tier intellectual task to a certain level of effectiveness. Claude can interpret the meat of what you're saying and agrees that AI is in a hype cycle, albeit with some areas in the plateau of productivity. It also gets these vibes it seems...
I just don't see how human intelligence isn't going to be surpassed soon. These 20 watt brains are great value but how long can they stand up against massive serverfarms with thousands of times more resources?
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link