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Culture War Roundup for the week of April 7, 2025

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I don't follow this line of thinking – are you implying that Trump wanted to continue the tariffs on phones regardless of the impact but was prevented from doing so?

This is the most likely explanation. Trump reversed course right before bear market territory and mere hours after a spike in 10-year treasury yields, which implied a brewing liquidity crisis. The pressure he was under to pause must have been insane.

Meanwhile we still have no hard data confirming the predicted tariff recession. Jobs were good, and CPI contracted month-over-month.

I believe Trump believed and still believes that tariffs are effective for causing import substitution and bootstrapping new domestic industry. He also wanted and probably still wants the US to be able to make phones. There are good reasons for a country to be self sufficient in strategic technologies.

Trump was forced to undo this policy, either through political pressure or his own assessment of the impact of the policy on his political capital. I don't think his mind was changed about the merits of the policy. I do think this reversal is evidence that the US is incapable of doing hard things.

Things are different, though, when everyone who knows anything about the thing you're trying to do knows it's a bad idea and explains to you why it's a bad idea. It's not like Trump had a bevy of economists in his ear and out in the media saying that the tariff policy was necessary and that the short-term pain would be worth it. The only people saying that were him and politicians whose constituents require supplication to him. The criticism he was receiving probably wasn't simply that this was a bad move politically, but a stupid move economically that wouldn't bring about the desired result even if we'd stuck to it for a hundred years. It may be an act of courage to do something necessary but politically unpopular, but it's pure stupidity to do something disastrous and politically unpopular.