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125% tariffs on all Chinese imports is "scaredy cat" behavior?
If he caves on China then sure, make fun of him all you want.
It doesn't seem like the market believes he will actually follow through given the rally back, and given he's caved multiple times already on other nations (including this recent one) it's a fair expectation when seeing a consistent pattern.
Or that China is not the only important country from a trade perspective.
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While I would agree that the market does not find the China tariffs very plausible as a long-term policy, we're still well below inauguration asset price levels, so I would interpret the market as mostly saying that a) the 10% tariffs are a major impediment to growth and so are the China tariffs and b) he screwed the business climate up so badly already that there is no fixing it.
Or the market was irrational back then with crazy P/E ratios.
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Well we can do a !RemindMe and if he does cave on China (i.e. returning to basically the pre-tariff status quo, modulo perhaps some minor and ultimately inconsequential concessions on either side) then yes, I will acknowledge that the whole thing was dumb and a waste of time.
Decoupling from China is a legitimate and important strategic goal for the US, and I think there are enough China hawks in both the administration proper and the Republican party in general that there is enough political will to see it through.
It's not some 100% guarantee thing. It's possible he goes through with it, but we also have his whole first term to look at where he also did the same exact thing of threatening tariffs on China only to pull back like what happened with Apple https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/13/apple-dodges-iphone-tariff-after-trump-confirms-china-trade-agreement.html
He had said over and over again there would be no exemptions only for the exemptions to come. https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/26/trump-apple-tariff-waivers-1437284 https://9to5mac.com/2019/09/20/trump-apple-mac-pro-tariff-exemption/
Even if he doesn't drop the tariffs themselves on a technical level, history does suggest there will be meaningful levels of exemptions and workarounds. Most of his actions so far have been to bark really loud and then pull back.
Again, if he does pull back, or if he leaves a loophole so big that the tariffs are effectively symbolic, then I will acknowledge that the whole thing was dumb and a waste of time.
Well good news, not even that much later and it's already starting with talk of exempting large companies https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-hell-take-look-exempting-some-larger-us-companies-hit-especially-hard-tariffs
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What event are we reminding for exactly, though? If the China tariffs remain large and the stock market fully recovers despite this? My claim is pretty much just that financial markets think the tariffs are bad for the economy and that they are not pricing in the consequences of them staying long-term.
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