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Is your objection to my use of the term 'Rust Belt', or the argument that the 80s/90s weren't critical turning point? I don't care about the former, the latter is statistically true - deindustrialisation was much more significant after then, then had occured previously.
The 80s/90s clearly were not the critical turning point. The point of noting the term "Rust Belt" came from the '80s is to show that it was understood at the time that it had already largely happened.
Yes it was - US trade balance only begins to dramatically decline in the 80s, and then dramatically accelerates in the 90s (i.e. the same time NAFTA comes into effect and China's exports explode in growth). While there was decline and deindustrialisation in some areas and sectors before then, US manufaturing and exports was still relatively healthy in the up to the 80s.
Manufacturing remains healthy. Using balance of trade is assuming the conclusion.
Manufacturing jobs stagnants in the 80s (despite population growth) and begins to decline in 90s onwards. The increase in output has largely been due to productivity gains - but the actual manufacturing output as a percentage of the US economy has continuously shrunk. All the graph you linked shows is that existing manufacturing has gotten more productive/more efficient, which is unsurprising. In fact, output has actually stagnanted over the last 20 years despite productivity growth.
Increased productivity is not decline.
Yes, output has stagnated since the GFC according to my chart. But at a far higher level than it was before NAFTA came into effect. It grew like mad until 2000. Then after a recession it grew at a lower pace until it hit an all time high right before the GFC. This does not support a claim that trade killed manufacturing. Manufacturing isn't dead and manufacturing growth wasn't killed by trade.
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