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Notes -
I admit, I put as little effort into coming up with that number as Trump did when deciding the tariff rates. I'm not sure anyone can predict all the feedback loops and unexpected incentives that will be created by such extreme meddling in the economy. Regardless of the exact numbers, we are doomed. It's over.
Why do you believe the US adopting a policy change towards a global norm 'dooms' you? Why is it 'over?'
I am not particularly a fan of tariffs, and I even find arguments that they are net-negatives to theoretical economic efficiency persuasive to a point. I also feel obliged to note that tariffs are normal. Having a default higher level of tariffs is a negotiation tool to pressure other states to make trade concessions on access for your exports.
The ultra-MAGA European Union characterizes its trade policy rational as-
This is a policy that starts with a premise of higher tariffs as a starting point of negotiations. Mutually beneficial access is not the starting point with low tariffs, it is something to be judged based on the degree of access you receive in return based on various factors. Tariffs are just one of the trade barriers to be negotiated downward from a premise that starts high.
However, 'fairness' has always been a matter of judgement. I am certain many would assert that the EU mooting a $1 billion fine against Twitter/X is a demonstrative of a fair market access relationship. I suspect some of them might also concede in private, where no one is around to hear them, that those who don't believe this to be a politically neutral penalization of a media company known for hosting politically disfavored speech may have a point.
Regardless, though, the self-described-
-is also one which formally views tariffs as a starting point for future negotiations.
Starting points tend not to be 'the end.'
I think you misunderstand Trump, you misunderstand the EU, and your own position is incoherent.
Trump does not actually believe international trade, negative balance trade at least, is mutually beneficial, and this sets him apart from the EU and most of the rest of the world. He‘s not negotiating, he really prefers no trade to a trade deficit. He‘s been saying so for decades, but his supporters, and even the market until recently, refused to believe him.
Your attempts to read a sinister motive into the EU‘s trade policy : yeah, they want markets for their exporters – and the very next sentence, they say they support foreigners in their attempts to export to them. They acknowledge most countries have some tariffs in place – this means Trump unilaterally 5Xing every tariff is ‚moving towards the global norm‘?
You once made the bizarre argument that the US ‚gave‘ europe a trade surplus against itself in exchange for (europe‘s) military support. This is a zero-sum trumpian understanding of international trade. If europe cancels this ‚agreement‘, what trade is there to negotiate? The ‚subventions‘ (US trade deficit) will simply stop. Just like the ‚subventions‘ to cambodia and fiji and the rest of the world.
Noted. Counterargument- you disagree with some arguments made not only by me but many others, misunderstand some of my arguments, and are condemning as incoherent as opposed to incompatible with your preferred paradigm.
For example, this-
-has multiple disputable points. 'He is not negotiating, he really prefers no trade to a trade deficit' is a claim that doesn't really stand scrutiny.
It doesn't pass on literalism test- the tariffs would reduce trade, not reduce it to no trade. If your claimed goal were correct, we would need other, not present (or threatened) steps to achieve it.
But even if we remove my opinion entirely, your argument also does not align to how various world leaders across multiple continents are responding. Various leaders with well developed policy aparatus are approaching this as a negotiation. This includes European leaders as well. One of those world leaders who has expressed that Trump is negotiating is... Donald Trump.
I am nearly always happy to remove my own opinion from why someone should consider my position, but I do raise an eyebrow at why anyone should take your characterization as more authoritative than, well, world authorities. Or even believe your take is accurate in its characterizations.
For example, this-
-is projection of intent that mistakes the argument. I am not making any sort of argument of sinister motive. I am making a point of how tariffs function in negotiations, which is consistent with even a pro-foreign-trade institution like the EU.
So when you make an intended counter-argument of-
-the answer is an unironic 'yes'. 'Supporting foreigners in their attempt to export to them' is not incompatible with having a higher tariff as a starting point for negotiations is a global norm. That the US had a lower-than-normal-for-its-scale and is going to 10% is above a global average, but the use of trading-down tariffs is part of a global norm.
This only becomes incompatible if you dispute a starting premise that Trump's tariffs are an end rather than a means. However, that is not incoherent.
Which is characteristic for you. For example, this-
-would be an example of you rejecting the paradigm an argument was making on its own terms.
If you want to argue about that a security relationship should be separate from an economic relationship, that is an argument of preference on what paradigms should apply. If you want to argue that trade policy was never a part of American cold war strategic policy, however, that's an argument of fact. But arguments of the nature of strategic alliances are not incoherent simply because you want to substitute an international trade paradigm instead.
That these countries and Trump say they 'approach it as a negotiation', are open to negotiations‘ conveys no information. Russia was ‚open to negotiations‘ right before they invaded, Ukraine and Russia have been ‚open to negotiations‘ the whole war. They, like Trump and the EU, have incompatible understandings of reality.
I guess we‘ll soon see who‘s right. If the tariffs are largely lifted after some compromise, you were right, hardball negotiating tactic.
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Vastly increasing the cost imports crashes the US economy, which crashes the global economy, which sends the world into a Great Depression. It's a pretty straight line.
If we ignore that the underlying and mechanical nature of the Great Depression and its dependence on bank runs due to gold standard, I suppose, but why would we do that?
If we want to make straight lines to historical analogies, they need to be valid historical analogies. Otherwise we're just scribbling to boo-word pejoratives.
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It sounds like this would be a really good time to have solid institutional credibility to draw on with the public at large.
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