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Notes -
Great write up, Dean.
One last point that is hinted at only implicitly:
Even though the Le Pen family was good for French centrist politicians, it was bad for the French establishment because of the outlier possibility that the RN might win and then - with understandably extreme resentment - act very harshly against them, far beyond the action required simply to implement their program. This is especially true in the context of the French presidency, which in theory affords the president extreme power.
Bardella - Le Pen’s likely replacement - is preferable on all fronts. He is young and lacks the same familial resentment for and antagonism toward the establishment that Le Pen does. He is less likely to swear revenge. He is more moderate on immigration and even to some extent the economy. His ideology is loose and he is easily persuaded.
It’s like the difference between your daughter dating someone you vehemently hate, but who you think she’s unlikely to marry, versus dating someone you merely somewhat dislike but who is marginally more likely to marry. The tail risks are worse in the former case.
Is Bardella really a more likely replacement than Marion Marechal le Pen?
Marion betrayed Marine to go into Zemmour's party and then betrayed Zemmour again.
There is not a snowball's chance in hell she'd be allowed to run as RN's candidate.
Meanwhile Bardella was the official party choice for a PM bid. It's his turn, I doubt anybody has the stature to question his legitimacy for a presidential run within the party at this point.
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