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At least for now Poles insist it was a Russian missile. Just came in:
https://www.gov.pl/web/dyplomacja/komunikat-w-zwiazku-z-wezwaniem-ambasadora-federacji-rosyjskiej-do-msz
Polish MFA summoned the Russian ambassador.
They'll too take a huge credibility hit if that's indeed a Ukrainian missile.
Many Ukrainian weapons are Russian-produced, and consumables like missiles aren't always re-marked. Russia produces the S-300 series of anti-air missiles.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-300_missile_system
We don't yet know for certain what it was, but proving the missile is of Russian manufacture still doesn't prove who fired it. OTOH, if you look at a map of the conflict in Ukraine, you might note how far it all is from Poland. The main front line now running up the Dnieper and Donetsk is roughly a thousand kilometers from the nearest point on the Polish border. The max ballistic range of a S-300 is forty klicks, and if it's the latest and greatest, an air range of 200 klicks. Simply put, if this was a S-300, it's almost certainly Ukrainian or Belarussian. The Russians aren't close enough to Poland.
If it wasn't a repurposed AA missile, but a longer range ballistic missile, it will be clear from the investigation, and if it was fired from Russia, there's no chance it was mistake. You don't miss by a thousand kilometers on accident and hit a non-belligerent country.
It does look like it was most likely a Ukie missile that went astray, but why do you keep telling everyone where the front lines are? Russia has been bombarding targets across Ukraine for over a month now, I don't think anyone thinks this missile was targeted at the front lines and flew right over them, more that it was targeted at a power plant in Western Ukraine.
1: If the missile is as reported, a S-300 AA rocket, it has a maximum flight range of 200km
2: Russian AA has to be behind their front line.
3: The front line is 1,000km minimum from Poland.
4: Ergo, there is no physical way that particular rocket could have made it to Poland from any Russian position. It would have to have been fired within 200km of the Polish border, probably much closer. Which means Ukranian or Belorussian, not Russian.
Think of it this way: if a guy in Chicago gets shot with a 9mm slug from a handgun, it probably wasn't fired from Detroit. We can rule Detroit out as a source of the gunshot, because bullets don't travel that far. We can use the maximum range of the projectile to measure the radius from the impact point where it could have originated, and this can eliminate a lot of potential sources.
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Well they would say that, wouldn't they? Likewise, the Russians say it's a provocation of some kind, their favourite word to use this year. Pro-Russian twitter has of course all lined up around it being a Ukrainian missile, as you would expect.
I chose Eliot's post because he's one of the vaguely pro-Ukrainian, semi-'official' commentators on this war. If someone with a bias towards the Ukrainians thinks it was a Ukrainian error, then it holds extra weight as an opinion.
Right. I don't dismiss the possibility of it being an accident involving a Ukrainian AA missile. Yet I think it's prudent to wait for the results of the investigation. I don't think it would be possible to hide the results of it. Of course, if Americans and Poles will come out and say "it was 100% a Russian missile" — Russians will try to discredit this conclusion, but it will be enough for me.
Also I don't really know how much Polish diplomats value their credibility and how competent they are. Ukrainians had several fuckups, like voting against American declaration on human rights situation in Xinjiang, and then backtracking; or voting against Israel in the UN, and then asking Israel for arms; so even being a Ukrainian I can imagine them screwing it up and lying, even though I wouldn't like that to be the case obviously. But I don't know about Poland.
I think the Poles are hedging their bets. They cleverly said 'it's a Russian-made missile' which it would be even if they fired it since the S-300 is a Soviet-era weapon with some upgrades. The Soviets are basically interchangeable with Russia.
https://www.gov.pl/web/dyplomacja/komunikat-w-zwiazku-z-wezwaniem-ambasadora-federacji-rosyjskiej-do-msz
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