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Notes -
The direct implication of this is that we don't know if they won't come right back to sending trans women to women's sports and prisons the moment they win.
We don't know. But it's not guaranteed they will, and what determines whether Democrats will are how powerful trans activists are when Democrats win, not past actions or politicians' stated values at one moment.
A downside of this framework is that power is opaque, and the clearest way to seeing whether trans groups are powerful is whether they can cause Democratic politicians to send trans people to women's sports and prisons. Beyond that, we have to read tea leaves: how does media treat trans issues? Do tech platforms give them full censorship rights?
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