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PaperclipPerfector  2d ago (text post)   958 thread views

Wellness Wednesday for March 12, 2025

The Wednesday Wellness threads are meant to encourage users to ask for and provide advice and motivation to improve their lives. It isn't intended as a 'containment thread' and any content which could go here could instead be posted in its own thread. You could post:

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Ok, that's bullshit AI blogspam. "Best days" don't matter, trends do, and it doesn't do anything to support its claim.

  1. I doubt it's AI given that the earliest snapshot on IA of this page is from August 2022 and chatgpt released in November of that year.

  2. I doubt it's bullshit given that other people have done similar analyses and found that the best days of trading have outsized effects on long term returns, even if the exact effect size varies depending on the parameters of the analysis.

But if you have analysis to the contrary I'd be interested in seeing it.

And his results are very different than theirs, you'll notice.

Yes, his result is that you lose about a third of your returns rather than 50%. It's not clear if the original post assumed monthly investments or one lump sum at the beginning, which is why I said the exact number depends on the parameters of the analysis.

Would you really not have said that the original article is bullshit if it said you lose merely a third of gains if you miss out on the ten best trading days? No matter how you slice it, it seems clear that "best days don't matter" isn't true.

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