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PaperclipPerfector  2d ago (text post)   2360 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for March 9, 2025

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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How's The Motte feel about the coming US recession everyone is assuring me will start this year?

Yes, I know the internet has predicted 25 of the last 1 recessions, and if I search youtube I'll find videos of indicators that have never been wrong predicting a recession within the next six months for the past six years, but it feels like the volume is starting to heat up.

Anyone else getting this or is it just my own personal algonoise? Are we feeling bearish? Should I start stacking cash?

I've been holding onto a few hundred k in cash at 5ish%, feeling very stupid for the past year as everyone's gainz blow past. We're only down 8% from peak right now, vs the 25% crash in 2022.

Praying for a huge nosedive.

It's against my direct interest but I'm curious what a 20% red day would look like in the age of tiktok

we've a good half a generation that's never experienced a major downturn

Something might still pull us out of negative GDP territory and avoid a recession, formally defined, but I definitely don't expect great stock returns this year. Even if Trump doesn't fully implement ruinous economic policies, the constant waffling and threats are going to scare the hoes.

Something I have no idea how to gauge is whether the layoffs will themselves have a substantial economic effect. Seeing all those houses for sale around DC was kind of shocking but perhaps only matters locally.

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A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently, it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey", originally identified by philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."

On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.


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