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I think at some point, we’re talking about angels dancing on pins. Thought and thinking as qualia that other being experience is probably going to be hard. I would suggest that being able to create a heuristic based on information available and known laws of the universe in question constitutes at least an understanding of what the information means. Thinking that fighting a creature with higher STR and HP stats than your own is a pretty good child’s understanding of the same situation. It’s stronger, therefore I will likely faint if I fight that monster. Having the goal of “not wanting to faint” thus makes the decision heuristic of “if the monster’s statistics are better than yours, or your HP is too low, run away.” This is making a decision more or less.
A kid knows falling leads to skinned knees, and that falling happens when you’re up off the ground is doing the same sort of reasoning. I don’t want to skin my knees, so I’m not climbing the tree.
That's true, but if that leads to running from every battle, then you won't level up. Even little kids will realize that they're doing something wrong if they're constantly running. That's what I mean when I say it has a lot of disconnected knowledge, but it can't put it together to seek a goal.
One could argue that's an issue with its limited memory, possibly a fault of the scaffold injecting too much noise into the prompt. But I think a human with bad memory could do better, given tools like Claude has. I think the problem might be that all that knowledge is distilled from humans. The strategies it sees are adapted for humans with their long-term memory, spatial reasoning, etc. Not for an LLM with its limitations. And it can't learn or adapt, either, so it's doomed to fail, over and over.
I really think it will take something new to get past this. RL-based approaches might be promising. Even humans can't just learn by reading, they need to apply the knowledge for themselves, solve problems, fail and try again. But success in that area may be a long way away, and we don't know if the LLM approach of training on human data will ever get us to real intelligence. My suspicion is that if you only distill from humans, you'll be tethered to humans forever. That's probably a good thing from the safetyist perspective, though.
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