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Ukraine is not Vietnam to Russia. They really, really care about what goes on in Ukraine and will expend vast efforts there, not least because there are a large number of Russians living in Ukraine. Most of the country speaks Russian. The commander in chief of the Ukrainian army, Syrski, is an ethnic Russian who was trained in Moscow Higher Military Command School, his whole family is Russian. This war is halfway between a civil war and an interstate war, despite what the media would like us to believe.
There are serious risks of nuclear use if the Ukrainians somehow threatened to seriously defeat the Russian army, which they have shown little sign of being capable of. The nominal Western strategy is to achieve this though, the 2023 counteroffensive was supposed to do this IIRC. Our strategy is incoherent, there is no clear path to victory.
Russian oligarchs are not profiting from this war. Oligarchs would like to trade with the West, party in the South of France or launder money offshore. Vlad in the armaments factory and textile mill is the one profiting from this war, Ivan living in the formerly-decrepit Urals industrial town that's now a booming part of the war economy is seeing his income rise. The political losers from this war are the English-fluent laptop class who've had many of their foreign assets and IT jobs frozen, many have fled Russia for Turkey or Argentina. The most pro-Western elements in Russia have been politically euthanized while the less-educated patriots are getting more prestige and wealth. Putin is relatively moderate by the standards of Russian leadership, Medvedev is constantly making radical hyperbolic threats and statements online. Other academics have called for a demonstration strike on Poland.
I foresee many nasty surprises waiting for us as this war progresses, it should not be considered in this casual way. It does have a material effect on all of us via energy prices if nothing else.
Ivan was drafted and is now dead.
Those who could fled the country, the final phase of the brain drain that Putin has been contributing to since the 90s, and entire towns of young men have been decimated thanks to this war.
If Ivan is dead, then who is making more shells and drones than the US or Europe?
The Russian draftees aren't the primary troops on the front they mostly do rear-area work. Russia has been pumping up soldier's wages looking for volunteers on the front. Ukraine is the side reliant on draftees to hold the line because they have more casualties and less manpower. Which is exactly what we'd expect in a war between a big country and a small country.
They make two types of drones: one is constructed with low-tech parts from Iran, the other are decoy drones made of plywood and foam. Both are cheap, easy to construct, and automated and thus require little manpower. Therefore, comparing drone output between Europe and Russia is pointless. US drone, and military, technology is vastly superior.
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"Laptop class" from big cities with passports and money, and large numbers of them since then returned, when they were less than welcomed in the West and their cash ran out. Thank NAFO types, well done.
Estimates vary widely as to how many people have returned, but it seems like as many as 50% of emigrants are still outside the country. This is a significant amount of people.
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