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PaperclipPerfector  29d ago (text post)   34864 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of March 3, 2025

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All this discussion started with my very falsifiable claim that Ukraine surrendering to Russia would increase, not decrease, the threat level for eastern Europe. I'm not sure how you got to the point that there is any metaphysics involved

I'm as puzzled as you are. Because I think that the threat level for Eastern Europe has nothing to do with Russia's historical imperialism or "trust" or any other such fib and everything to do with how relatively weak the European militaries that defend it are.

There is no world where Eastern Europe isn't contested because lest we forget:

Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island; who rules the World-Island commands the world.

But Ireland and Portugal have also a relativemy weak military and they aren't particularly threatened

They're in western Europe.

Mongolia is sandwiched between two big baddies and doesn't feel particularly threatened.

Yeah, and frankly unless Mongolia has nukes they won’t have meaningful independence when completely landlocked by Russia and China. It’s a done deal and all they can do is grovel.

That’s exactly why they’re safe.

Yes I know, that is the point. What in the world makes them secure without a proper army and wouldn't work for Estonia, excepted that none of their neighbours have been imperialistic for decades?

Geography.

Both Ireland and Portugal are at worst the toy of machinations of their closest regional power, the entire world's geopolitical balance doesn't revolve around control of their land.

I'm pretty sure Russian or Chinese nukes in Portugal would have an important effect on the geopolical balance

Of course, but that's never going to happen because Portugal is always on the side of whatever Thalassocracy controls the Atlantic, and Russia and China have to be land powers and are very far away indeed.

Iberia is a foregone conclusion for whomever controls Europe. And you need Eastern Europe to control Europe.

If America was isolated from the World Island, that would be another story, but that's not a scenario that has happened yet, or is likely to happen.

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