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PaperclipPerfector  6d ago (text post)   31064 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of March 3, 2025

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A lot of the pro-Trump/pro-deal faction on here like to describe themselves as realists and pat themselves on the back for understanding Realpolitik and not being squishy idealists. It seems to me, though, that the Realpolitik goes in the other direction. Russia is our biggest foreign military threat, and is the biggest threat to our allies as well. While I'd prefer a world in which they didn't invade Ukraine, they've proven both that they are too incompetent to score a quick victory and too bullheaded to call off their dogs. For their part, the Ukrainians don't seem to have any interest in capitulating.

Our biggest potential rival is China not Russia, and the battle will likely be over Taiwan not Ukraine. So we’re fighting the wrong war from the realist point of view. My concerns for the future are refugees from MENA flooding Europe and North America, a wider MENA war, and China making a play for Taiwan (which is a major high tech manufacturer, including critical computer chips). Ukraine is not a critical country here. Russia isn’t a strong enemy, they have a lot of mineral and oil wealth, but they aren’t a modern country with a modern economy and military. They’re only relevant because they have a nuclear arsenal. Ukraine, if it hadn’t been invaded is not a prize. It’s a corrupt country full of farmers. It has no critical industries, it secures no border, it’s just there.

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