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Notes -
I'm still unsure that Trump is paying very much attention to Canada. The timing of the first delay in response to Canada offering basically the same thing they'd already started doing in December really made it look like someone had to remind Trump about Canada after already delaying the Mexico tariffs.
What I've seen of the meeting with Zelenskyy similarly just reinforces the impression that Trump is governing on broad emotional direction and really doesn't keep any particular details in mind at all.
I end up coming back to what I said last month. After decades of the left talking about the "American Empire," Trump is embracing that view and demanding fealty from his vassals. In Canada, at least, the incumbent thinks they'll do better in the upcoming election by leaning into the anti-Americanism, so the best hope for delaying or canceling the tariffs seems to be that Trump forgets he's mad at Trudeau the way he forgot he called Zelenskyy a dictator.
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