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Unfortunately it’s extremely dependent on the Haber-Bosch process. Modern crops aren’t grown in soil as much as they are grown in a six foot deep layer of fertilizer. Much of the phosphates for that fertilizer comes from Russia which is part of why food prices have been going up so much over the last few years.
No, they don't. Russia produces 5.6% of global phosphate output which is about 60% of US production.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphate
Could be wrong but I doubt it. Phosphate prices started going up in Feb 2020 and were quite high, but have now reduced to the merely elevated levels of 2012 since the end of 2024.
https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=rock-phosphate&months=240
That said, this graph is a little weird looking, so maybe it's not totally trustworthy.
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No one told my $NTR stock about higher prices. Potash shortages are always 30 years away.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NTR/
Russia has been very good about defeating the oil sanctions (with some huge percentage of the world oil fleet turning off their transponders). It's likely they are shipping nearly as many phosphates as they were before too.
Nutrien is losing value because they are having to spend more and more money on potash since the war started, which is cutting into their bottom line.
Top-line revenue doesn't seem to bear that out: https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NTR/income-statement
Commodities investors got really excited in 2022, but the sector remains a wasteland, as it has been ever since 2014 or even longer.
Hell, since peaking in 2008, oil prices are down about 70% in real terms.
Iron ore, bulk shipping, oil, fertilizer prices, it's all in the toilet.
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