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Notes -
They might well accept one if it is provided by a party that would not be seen as likely to help or look away as Ukraine + backers prepare to reconquer lost territories. China or India, on the face of it, would be good candidates - the problem is that it's unclear if you could actually convince the Indians to do it, and the West might not fully trust China and moreover under Trump is unlikely to be interested in raising its diplomatic prestige in such a fashion.
The problem is that it also seems unlikely that the Ukrainians would accept such a security guarantee, or in fact any security guarantee that is not actually a guarantee of cover and support as they prepare for reconquest. Especially in the eyes of the leadership, the prospect of being left in perpetuity with exactly what they have now might be scarcely better than actual complete defeat, and they still estimate the value of their position as higher than that. I mean, European boots on the ground are, if anything, more likely now that Trump has sent everyone into hysterics - South Vietnam and France also held out for years with their situation going from bleak to bleaker until the US finally caved and sent in its own GIs.
Right, I doubt Ukraine would give up its sovereignty simply to appease Russia. I don't quite blame them.
Doesn't this also raise the risk of nuclear exchange? It's not like Europeans aren't nuclear powers themselves.
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