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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   1770 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for February 23, 2025

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

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by the time the typical vaccine reaches market (let alone when it becomes part of a national schedule), the evidence is very strong.

Flu vaccines? Even people wanting you to take them usually stick to a pitch like "it doesn't work every year, but... can't hurt, can it?" IME. (possibly moving on to "you wouldn't want to kill grandma, would you?")

Flu vaccine? Well, if you want to single it out, then I'd be obliged to say that unless you're sickly, old, or work in healthcare, the benefits are largely a wash when compared to the minimal risk the typical annual flu strain otherwise presents. That would be the case even if the vaccine was perfectly safe. I'm on record saying the same thing, if someone wants to dig years deep into my profile.

If someone doesn't want to get it, no biggie. Hell, even I've missed shots that were offered to me for free because I didn't think it mattered enough.

Sure, that's a reasonable position -- thing is, it's not really aligned with what the public health people say. Hence the burnt credibility.

Don't know if we have data on this (because it's ultimately small potatoes by expensive research standards) but healthcare lore and anecdote in the U.S. is that the flu vaccine 100% reduces severity of illness and down time.

Worth it in my book for a mild owie.

All it takes is one real visit by the flu and then you get the point.

Note that this is very rough napkin maths, but I estimate that the average flu shot provides ~ 0.0015 to 0.003 QALYs per shot.

In other words, about a day's worth of perfect health per shot. This probably does matter at the population level, I think it comes to about $10k to $20k per QALY, which isn't bad at all, but per shot, it's rather negligible on an individual basis.

Being healthy for half a day versus having a rather sore arm (and a small additional risk of flu for a few days) is what it boils down to, and I will confess that I can't be bothered most of the time. If someone shows up with a shot and asks me to take it (my grandpa was a stickler about literally doing that), I'd go for it. If it posed even a trivial inconvenience, I wouldn't lose sleep over missing it.

I've had the flu maybe a dozen times (at least counting respiratory infections worse than the average cold) and covid 4+ times (that's how many times I tested positive, and eventually I stopped bothering). None of them were bad enough to overcome my general laziness these days.

Unless you're already sick, immunocompromised, or old, I think you wouldn't really notice the difference between getting a shot and not bothering.

Unless you're already sick, immunocompromised, or old, I think you wouldn't really notice the difference between getting a shot and not bothering.

Clearly I'm in this description and I don't like it.

I'm past my best-by too, I'll see you in the nursing home eventually!

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